To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Nothing interesting happened in the first half of the day. There were no signals to enter the market due to the same low intraday volatility that persisted today before the important meeting of the US Federal Reserve, from which many expect changes in the leading indicator. The data on inflation in the eurozone did not surprise and coincided with the forecasts of economists, which kept the trading volume quite low during the European session. Most likely, low volatility will continue until the announcement of economic forecasts, the release of which is scheduled only for the second half of the US session.

It will be possible to talk about the return of the euro market by buyers under their control only after a breakout and a top-down test of the resistance of 1.1939. Only from this level will a good signal be formed to open long positions in the expectation of a resumption of the bull market. Poor data on the US economy is unlikely to lead to changes in the market, as the reports are not important. At the breakdown of 1.1939, you can count on a larger increase in EUR/USD with a return to the maximum of last week in the area of 1.1989, where I recommend taking the profits. If the bulls do not show much activity in the area of 1.1939 or the pressure on the euro will continue in the second half of the day – it is best to postpone purchases until the support test of 1.1884, from which you can buy the euro only if a false breakout is formed there. If the Fed does not make any changes to monetary policy and leaves the leading indicator in line with past forecasts, the pressure on the euro could seriously increase. In this case, I recommend postponing purchases until the next support of 1.1838, from which you can open long positions immediately for a rebound with the aim of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

As long as trading is below 1.1939, the pressure on the euro will continue. Good data on the US economy is unlikely to lead to a new wave of decline in the euro, so the entire focus will be shifted to the decision of the Fed. The immediate target of the bears is now the support of 1.1884. A breakout and a test from the bottom up of this level forms a good signal to open short positions in the continuation of the bear market. In this case, the task of the bears will be to update the minimum of 1.1838. The next major area, where I recommend fixing the profit, is seen in the area of 1.1804. If the pair grows in the second half of the day, only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1939 will be a signal to open short positions in the continuation of the downward trend. If the bears do not show activity around this level – it is best to postpone selling until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1989, an increase to which may occur in the event of news and the planned change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the near future. From there, you can sell the euro immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next major level is visible only in the area of 1.2047.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 9 clearly shows how there is a sharp reduction in long positions and a very large increase in short ones, which indicates a continued shift of the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the chart of the fall of the euro, which we have been watching since the end of February this year. The sharp rise in bond yields of many developed countries continues, which plays in favor of the US dollar, as investors expect that the United States will be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the US dollar more attractive. The recent meeting of the European Central Bank did not change the market, as the decisions taken were not critical and did not affect the mood of investors. It is best not to rush into buying euros but to wait for lower prices. Another factor of medium-term pressure on the euro is the repeated increase in the incidence of coronavirus. The slow vaccination program is pushing the lifting of quarantine measures to a later date. Only with the lifting of restrictions and the restoration of the service sector can we expect an improvement in the economic prospects of the eurozone, which will return the medium-term trend to the strengthening of the EUR/USD. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions declined to 207,588 from 222,655, while short non-profit positions rose from 96,667 to 105,624. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the fourth week in a row to 101,964 from 125,988. The weekly closing price was 1.1812 against 1.2048 a week earlier.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of the 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Low volatility does not give signals to enter the market.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.