The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. The pair still passes no more than 50 points per day and moves almost always in only one direction. Over the past ten days, the instrument has already gained about 230 basis points, which gives very good reasons to assume the completion of the downward trend section. Its internal wave counting looks quite convincing. The wave counting of the assumed wave e also looks very convincing. Thus, at this time, the construction of a new upward trend is presumed to be continuing, which can also turn out to be corrective, that is, three-wave. If this assumption is correct, then the first wave may turn out to be very long, and the final target will lie near the maximum of the previous upward trend, around the 1.2266 mark. The option with the complication of the downward set of waves seems quite unlikely at the moment.
The news background for the EUR/USD pair was very diverse on Friday. Various reports that aroused interest were released in the European Union. The index of business activity in the service sector in August fell from 59.7 points to 59.0. The composite PMI index fell from 59.5 points to 59.0. Retail trade volumes in the EU fell by 2.3%, MoM. Thus, in general, the European package of economic statistics can be considered weak. Nonetheless, the European currency did not experience any discomfort about this, and demand for it has not decreased.
However, even after the release of American statistics, market activity has not increased significantly. The total amplitude of the day was only 22 points. That is, even taking into account very important statistics, this indicator remains at a very low value. The markets did not find any good reasons for active trading even on a day when there were quite a lot of important reports in both the European Union and the United States. Also, it cannot be concluded that the European currency received unambiguous market support after the nonfarm payrolls report. Because within half an hour after the increase in quotes, an approximately equal-sized decline began. Thus, the reaction of the markets to all the events of the day was very weak and did not affect the current wave counting in any way.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci level. So now I'm still waiting for the construction of an upward set of waves. There are no signs of resuming and complicating the construction of the downward trend section now, so I still recommend buying the pair with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2027 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up". An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1895 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci level, will indicate the readiness of the markets for small sales, the construction of wave b.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.
