GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its corrective growth on Friday and managed to complete the downward trend line. Thus, a rebound from this line provoked a new round of decline, but so far the price remains in the immediate vicinity, so the upward movement may still continue with subsequent overcoming. If this happens, then the trend will temporarily change to an upward trend and the pound will have another opportunity to continue moving up. On Friday, there were no important macroeconomic statistics or fundamentals in either the US or the UK. All of Britain mourned the untimely death of Queen Elizabeth II. Important statistics will be published in this country only next week. Therefore, the pound uses this time to at least slightly move away from its 37-year lows. It turns out so far badly, but too little time has passed.

In regards to Friday's trading signals, everything was both bad and excellent at the same time. Only one signal was formed, but it turned out to be very strong and profitable. The price rebounded from the level of 1.1649 with a minimal error and after that it fell by 83 points at the moment. Of course, it was not possible to close the deal at the highest profit - it also failed to reach the critical line. Therefore, it was necessary to close the short position manually in the late afternoon. Profit amounted to at least 50 points.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound released yesterday, was very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 5,700 long positions and opened 15,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately fell by 21,100, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains pronounced bearish, which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new fall, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 103,000 shorts and 52,000 longs open. The difference is twofold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the foundation and geopolitics. If they remain the same as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 12. European inflation and the speeches of the ECB representatives.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 12. Inflation in the UK, inflation in the US... it's going to be an interesting week!

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 12. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

GBP/USD 1H

The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. Despite quite a rise yesterday and the day before yesterday, it is clearly seen on the hourly timeframe that the price has slightly moved away from its 37-year lows and continues to be below the trend line. Thus, the technical picture has not changed yet. We highlight the following important levels on September 12: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. Senkou Span B (1.1669) and Kijun-sen (1.1524) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. The UK will publish relatively important reports on GDP and industrial production on Monday. The second report is unlikely to cause a strong market reaction, but the first could theoretically do so. The problem is that this is a monthly GDP report, not a quarterly one. It is of much less interest to traders.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.