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16.11.2022 09:07 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on November 16

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The test of 1.0356 happened when the MACD line went up quite a lot from zero, which limited the upward potential of the pair. Sell-offs at 1.0404 also did not bring much result as after a downward correction of around 10 pips, demand for euro returned. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day.

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Good data on business sentiment in Germany and the Euro area led to a sharp rise in euro yesterday morning. Then, dollar saw further pressure after the US published its report on producer prices for October. According to the index, inflation continues to decline, which could prompt the Fed to ease its aggressive policy. However, today, there is nothing that could help euro to recover its positions, so don't expect another growth. Although ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, she will only tell their planned changes on monetary policy. On the bright side, the afternoon promises to be much more interesting as ahead are reports on retail sales and industrial production in the US. If all indicators turn out to be better than expected, demand for dollar will return, which will exacerbate the downward correction in EUR/USD. Speeches by Fed representatives John Williams and Christopher Waller can also play on the side of dollar, as will an aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the world after yesterday's arrival of two missiles on the territory of Poland, which claimed the lives of people.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0402 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0463. Growth could occur, but there needs to be hawkish statements from the ECB president and bad statistics on the US. Also, remember that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it.

Euro can also be bought at 1.0361, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0402 and 1.0463.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0361 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0284. Pressure could return at any moment, especially if the situation in the political arena deteriorates. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it.

Euro can also be sold at 1.0402, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0361 and 1.0284.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
ผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านการวิเคราะห์ของ InstaForex
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