Forex Analysis & Reviews: Breaking forecast for EUR/USD on November 24
time 24.11.2022 08:24 AM
time Relevance up to, 24.11.2022 08:16 PM

There were all signs of a correction, including the US dollar oversold conditions and positive forecasts for the US macroeconomic reports. However, the publication of the eurozone preliminary data on business activity made it clear that the correction could take place only during the US trade. The fact is that the eurozone reports significantly exceeded forecasts.

Thus, the services PMI remained unchanged, whereas analysts had foreseen a decline to 47.8 points from 48.6 points. The manufacturing PMI increased to 47.3 points instead of falling to 45.7 points from 46.4 points. As a result, the composite PMI climbed to 47.8 points from 47.3 points instead of dropping to 46.8 points. However, the euro failed to increase. The market got stuck. Since the eurozone data turned out to be strong, the same might have occurred in the US. That is why investors took the wait-and-see approach.

Eurozone Composite PMI

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Although the US durable goods orders increased by 1.0%, all other macroeconomic reports were catastrophic. Thus, the number of first-time claims surged by 17,000 instead of 6,000. The number of continuing claims soared by 48,000, whereas economists had expected a rise of just 7,000. The situation with the preliminary PMI data turned out to be even worse. The services PMI dropped to 46.1 points instead of rising to 49.3 points from 47.8 points. The manufacturing PMI collapsed to 47.6 points instead of declining from 50.4 points to 50.1 points. As a result, the composite PMI slumped from 48.2 points to 46.3 points, although it should have grown to 49.5 points. Thus, the market failed to show a correction and the greenback resumed sliding.

US Continuing Claims

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Since today, the US is celebrating Thanksgiving Day, the currencies are likely to consolidate at yesterday's levels. The stagnation is likely to last until next week as tomorrow is a shortened working day in the US. Traders will hardly take a risk amid the absence of traders from the US, who control the biggest part of the currency market capital.

After the euro/dollar pair climbed above 1.0300, the volume of long positions increased. As a result, we see a full-scale recovery after the recent correction from the resistance level of 1.0500.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator upwardly crossed line 70. This points to the overheating of long positions on the euro. On the daily chart, the RSI is hovering in the upper area, which corresponds to the upward cycle.

On the four-hour and daily charts, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the bullish sentiment among traders.

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Since in the last 24 hours, the pair has been confidently gaining in value, long positions on the euro have become overheated on the daily chart. That is why the upward movement may slacken or the pair may bounce. The level of 1.0500 is still acting as resistance.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term, intraday, and mid-term periods, the indicators are providing buy signals amid the existing upward cycle.

Dean Leo,
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