Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD analysis for December 5. Euro comes under pressure on Monday morning
time 05.12.2022 02:56 PM
time Relevance up to, 06.12.2022 01:53 PM

This image is no longer relevant

Hello, dear traders! On Friday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the 200.0% retracement level of 1.0430, then reversed, and advanced to the Fibo level of 161.8%, 1.0574. If the price bounces off this level, the US dollar will gain value and the pair will slide to 1.0430. If the pair closes above 1.0574, it will most likely extend gains, heading towards 1.0705.

Friday's macroeconomic calendar was full of important releases including data on unemployment and the US labor market. Although Wednesday's ADP report turned out to be downbeat, Friday's report on US nonfarm payrolls came as a surprise to traders who had expected a lower reading. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in November. In my view, the nonfarm payrolls report was enough for the dollar to gain strong upside momentum. It advanced to the level of 1.0430, but bulls returned to the market, and the US dollar closed lower.

On Monday, the EU reported data on activity in the services sector. A PMI covering the bloc's dominant services industry nudged down to 48.5, while the composite index rose to 47.8. However, both of these indices remain below the reading of 50 and viewed as a negative factor for the euro. Statistics on retail trade in the EU for October were also disappointing. The report showed a decrease in the volume of retail trade by 1.8% m/m and by 2.7% y/y. Thus, a fall in the euro on Monday morning was logical.

As for other news releases to be published today, traders may take notice of data on business activity in the US services sector. The fact that traders have already priced in the less important European indices gives hope for statistics from the US. In general, bulls are still taking the lead in the market, but the upside momentum will fizzle out sooner or later. Probably, this will happen this week.

This image is no longer relevant
According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade upwards, heading for the retracement level of 100.0%, 1.0638. A bounce off this level will lead to an advance in the US currency and a decline in the pair towards the Fibo level of 127.2%, 1.0173. If the pair consolidates above the level of 1.0638, it will have a chance of extending gains. There are no emerging divergences today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

This image is no longer relevant

Last week, speculators opened 4,710 long contracts and 4,596 short contracts. The mood of major traders remains bullish. The total number of long contracts held by speculators is now 255,000, and that of short contracts - 122,000. The European currency is currently gaining value, which is in line with the COT report. At the same time, please note that the number of long contracts is twice as high as the number of short ones. Over the past few weeks, the euro has had a growing chance of adding in value, but now I wonder whether the euro has risen too much. The situation is becoming more favorable for the euro after a prolonged downtrend, so its outlook remains positive. It has managed to overcome the descending corridor on the 4-hour chart. Therefore, the European currency is moving upwards, but this is rather a long-term prospect.

News calendar for US and EU:

EU – Christine Lagarde speech

EU - Service PMI

EU - Composite PMI

EU - Retail sales

US - Services PMI

US - Composite PMI

US - ISM Services PMI

The macroeconomic calendar on December 5 mainly consists of reports on business activity. The impact of fundamental factors on market sentiment is likely to be medium today.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

I recommend going short in case of a bounce off the level of 1.0574 on the hourly chart with a view to reaching the target level of 1.0430. Long positions will be relevant in the event of a rebound from the level of 1.0315 on the hourly chart with a view to reaching the target levels of 1.0430 and 1.0574. Both marks have been tested.

Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
Start trade
Start trade

บทวิเคราะห์ของทาง InstaForex จะทำให้คุณทราบถึงแนวโน้มของตลาด! ในการที่เป็นลูกค้าของทาง InstaForex นั้นคุณจะได้รับการบริการเพื่อการซื้อขายอย่างเต็มประสิทธิภาพอย่างมากมาย

  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Chancy Deposit
    ฝากเงินในบัญชีของคุณใน $3,000 และรับ $10000 ไปเพิ่ม!
    ใน มกราคม ทางเราได้ออก$10000 ภายในแคมเปญ Chancy Deposit !
    คว้าโอกาสที่จะชนะด้วยการฝากเงิน $3,000 ไปในบัญชีเทรด เมื่อทำตามเงื่อนไขนี้แล้ว คุณก็จะกลายเป็นผู้เข้าร่วมแคมเปญ
  • เทรดให้ดีแล้วคว้ารางวัล
    เติมเงินในบัญชีของคุณอย่างน้อย $500 สมัครเข้าร่วมการแข่งขัน และลุ้นรับรางวัลอุปกรณ์ติดต่อสื่อสารแบบพกพา
  • โบนัส 100%
    โอกาสพิเศษของคุณในการรับโบนัส 100% จากเงินฝากของคุณ
  • โบนัส 55%
    สมัครรับโบนัส 55% สำหรับการฝากทุกครั้ง
  • โบนัส 30%
    รับโบนัส 30% ทุกครั้งที่คุณเติมเงินในบัญชีของคุณ

Recommended Stories

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 28, 2023

The bullish bias will be suggested for today, supported by the EMA100 that carries the price from above, taking into consideration that breaking 1.0819 will stop the expected rise

Mourad El Keddani 18:53 2023-01-28 UTC+2

January 27, 2023 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.

The market has remained under buying pressure until a plateau level occurred around the key-zone around 1.0800-1.0750. In the mean time, any downside movement towards 1.0300 should be watched

Mohamed Samy 20:51 2023-01-27 UTC+2

January 27, 2023 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.

Price action around the key-level of (1.0550-1.0600) was quite bullish. That's why, further bullish continuation towards 1.0800 was demonstrated. Moreover, more bullish advancement towards the nearest supply zone around 1.1150-1.1200

Mohamed Samy 20:51 2023-01-27 UTC+2

January 27, 2023 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.

Price action around 1.2340 was being watched for bearish rejection and a short-term SELL Entry. It was running in profits until the current bullish bounce has been expressed. Please take

Mohamed Samy 20:50 2023-01-27 UTC+2

AUD/USD: uptrend seems over

The AUD/USD pair registered strong growth but has now dropped below the uptrend line signaling that the upside movement ended and that the sellers could drag it lower. The uptrend

Ralph Shedler 18:42 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 27, 2023

The bullish trend is currently very strong for the GBP/USD pair. As long as the price remains above the weekly support at 1.2260, you could try to take advantage

Mourad El Keddani 18:05 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Trading Signal for GBP/USD for January 27 - 30, 2023: buy above 1.2370 (21 SMA - bearish channel)

In case the British pound falls and trades below the 21 SMA located at 1.2361, there is a strong probability that it could fall and reach the bottom

Dimitrios Zappas 17:16 2023-01-27 UTC+2

USDJPY vulnerable to another sell off.

USDJPY remains in a bearish trend. Price continues making lower lows and lower highs in the medium- term downward sloping red channel. Price recently got rejected at the upper channel

Alexandros Yfantis 14:50 2023-01-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Technical analysis on January 27, 2023. American economy shows impressive growth

Hello, dear traders! Yesterday, EUR/USD reversed and fell to the 200.0% retracement level of 1.0869 in the 1-hour time frame. In case of a rebound from this level, the quote

Samir Klishi 10:36 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Analysis of GBP/USD on January 27. GBP on roller coaster ride

Hi everyone! On the 1H chart, the GBP/USD pair declined to 1.2342 yesterday. Shortly after, it rebounded from it this level to 1.2432. However, the US dollar managed to regain

Samir Klishi 10:29 2023-01-27 UTC+2
ระบุคำถามไว้ได้ใน แชท.