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29.03.2023 05:31 PM
EUR/USD. Analysis for March 29. The market is waiting for a new acceleration of core inflation in the European Union.

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The final upward wave continues to confuse the wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair. Since the previous downward trend segment can be viewed as a three-wave segment that is complete, this wave may well be the first wave of a new upward trend segment, or it may be an internal wave of a complicated downward set of waves. So far, everything appears to be developing a new upward trend segment, but the GBP/USD pair is also developing a more straightforward structure that anticipates another downward wave. It will therefore be very challenging to work on the wave pattern for the euro currency, which has the potential to become very complicated. The development of the third ascending wave, with targets at least near the 10th figure, can start from the existing places if the development of an upward set of waves has already started. It is now completely confusing, although there are still choices for wave analysis. I think it is now appropriate, to begin with, a scenario where the pair has been increased.

The ECB rate's future will be determined by EU inflation.

On Tuesday, the euro/dollar pair increased by an additional 15 basis points. Even though the economic plan's news context is still lacking, the market is still able to firmly move the pair upward. Only one event this week is crucial for the European currency. The March inflation report, which indicates a significant decline in the primary indicator and an increase in core inflation, which is viewed as more significant because it does not account for changes in food and energy costs, will be released on Friday. Representatives of the ECB occasionally discuss the basic indicator when discussing the prospects for interest rates. As a result, the market will be more affected by the rise of base inflation than by the main inflation's decline. The likelihood of tightening monetary policy in May will increase by 50 basis points if the core consumer price index accelerates once more, which could lead to a new rise in demand for the euro.

The aforementioned viewpoint is now widely shared by players in the foreign exchange market. I do, however, have another that is less well-liked. He asserts that the market will continue to consider the significant slowdown of the primary measure because it is also significant. In general, it is very challenging to predict how the market will respond when one indicator increases and another decreases. The reality that the value of the euro has been rising for several weeks must also be considered. One can infer that the market is anticipating the inflation report because it does so almost entirely in the absence of news context. As a result, on Friday, we can observe a decline in the pair at any value of the consumer price index. I should point out that the wave markup is still unclear and does not provide insight into the pair's likely future movement.

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Conclusions in general.

I draw the conclusion that the downward trend section's development is finished based on the analysis. However, the wave analysis for the euro is confused right now, making it challenging to determine where the pair is with the trend. Even after one wave up, which may be a complicated wave b, a new three-wave structure of waves down can start to form. Therefore, based on the MACD reversals "up," I suggest cautious purchases with targets close to the 10th figure for the time being. It is impossible to fully rule out the possibility of continuing the development of a downward trend.

On the older wave scale, the ascending trend section's wave pattern has grown longer but is likely finished. The a-b-c-d-e pattern is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. The downward part of the trend may not be finished yet, and it could take any shape or size.

Chin Zhao,
ผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านการวิเคราะห์ของ InstaForex
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