Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6263

R2: 1.6233

R1: 1.6183

Current Spot: 1.6149

S1: 1.6115

S2: 1.6068

S3: 1.6017

Technical summary:

The break above minor resistance has extended the consolidation from 1.6017 higher to 1.6173. As long as the minor support at 1.6131 and more important as support at 1.6115 holds firm, we could see a move closer to 1.6211, but at no point should we see a rally beyond 1.6233 as that would indicate that an important bottom is already in place at 1.6017. However, that scenario does not fit our count, that the rally from 1.6017 only is blue wave iv and that blue wave v lower soon should take over for a decline towards at least 1.5977 and more likely closer to 1.5872 before a firm low is in place and a new impulsive rally is ready to take over.

Trading recommendation:

As we should be entering the last decline, any short EUR-positions should be traded with a close stop. However, we still think there is a potential downside of more that 300 pips, therefore we recommend to short in EUR at 1.6175 or upon a break below 1.6131 with a stop at 1.6240.