The US dollar still looks rather weak against the major G7 currencies even against the backdrop of good macroeconomic indicators.

The report on retail sales for March came in line with expectations, a small increase indicates a stable level of consumer demand. The dynamics of the construction sector is also positive, industrial production growth was 0.5%, which is higher than expected, the capacity utilization remained in the area of 2-year highs.

You can ridicule Trump for all his seemingly awkward and inconsistent actions, but the facts tell a different story. On Monday, the US Treasury reported on the dynamics of purchases of securities by foreign investors in February inclusive, the trend can be clearly seen - after the lowest was reached in July 2017, and in November - at least for Treasuries, the demand for US securities is steadily growing, and this growth immediately begun after Trump's election to the presidency of the United States.

In February, there was a decline in demand for shares, which is natural given the stock market's decline at the beginning of the month, but the demand for government bonds is growing steadily, while the total inflow of capital has recovered to 5-year highs.

The two most important factors that influence the exchange rate value of the dollar, pushing it to growth. The second factor, after the demand in the foreign market - the policy of the Fed, aimed at increasing rates and reducing the balance, it can not have any other consequences, except for the growth of the dollar rate due to the appreciation of credit and the reduction of supply. It can not be said that the Fed is trimming the balance sheet actively if in October 2017 the balance was 4.47 trillion, then, as of April 11, 4.38 trillion, a decline of about 90 billion is not critical, but the trend is developing and further reduction of the balance is inevitable.

Thus, there is a growing demand for US assets, while the dollar becomes more expensive, and assets - more profitable against the background of rising rates. All these factors should lead to an increase in the dollar index, but in practice we observe the opposite - the trade-weighted dollar exchange rate reached a 14-year high in December 2016, after which it began to decline, that is, immediately after Trump was elected to the the post of the US president.

In fact, the only possible scenario is development, which can lead to a successful "reset" of the US economy. Tax reform at the first stage will lead to a decrease in budget revenues, this is objective, but there is another threat - a decrease in real incomes of the population and, as a consequence, a drop in purchasing power. This threat is worse than all the others combined, since up to 80% of the tax base is just taxes on citizens.

In order to prevent the fall of consumer activity, it is necessary to raise the level of incomes and not allow the growth of import prices, which Trump's office successfully accomplishes.

In other words, in order to get a chance to successfully carry out the tax reform and achieve the set goals, Trump's office needs to solve a number of problems in a complex, not in isolation from each other, and a weak dollar is one of the criteria for overall success. It is necessary that the public debt is financed not by the Federal Reserve System, but by foreign capital, which we observe when analyzing the reports of the Treasury. It is necessary that imports do not rise in price so that citizens can support consumer demand - and we see this when looking at the trade-weighted rate of the USD. It is necessary that US assets look more attractive against the background of other securities - and indeed, the Fed follows the plan to raise rates regardless of the state of the economy, since it aims to make the returns of the entire range of securities higher.

The growth of inflation remains weak, and this is a sign that not everything is going smoothly. Using the example of Brexit and the subsequent fall of the pound, we saw how this process is taking place - inflation in the UK rose to 3% against the backdrop of higher import prices. In the US, inflation growth is weak in virtually the same processes, that is, the purchasing power of the population continues to be low.

Summarizing all of the above, we come to the conclusion that US financial authorities will continue to adhere to the weak dollar rate. Rhetoric can be absolutely anything, the main thing is to go through the most difficult stage of reforms with the help of a weak dollar.

The dollar will weaken against European currencies, primarily against the pound and the euro, while the Japanese yen will also be in high demand.