Trend analysis (Figure 1).

The price in April, testing the old resistance line (red line), began to move down. When moving down the first target 1.1709 is a retracement level of 38.2% (blue dotted line). And in the same place, there are 21 average EMA. The breakdown of this cloud from the first time at a price is unlikely.

Fig. 2 (monthly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candle analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

Conclusion on the complex analysis: Most likely, the bottom work.

The total result of calculating the candle of the EUR / USD currency pair on a monthly chart: The price is most likely to have a downward trend with the absence of the first upper shadow (the first week of the month, the lower one) for the monthly black candle and the absence of the second lower shadow (last week is black).

The first lower target is the retracement level of 38.2% 1.1709 (the blue dotted line).