4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 82p - 72p - 45p - 82p - 46p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 65p (73p).

On Thursday, February 21, the EUR/USD currency pair again made a breakthrough upwards, which in the illustration appears very convincing, but in fact is only 35 points. Preliminary values of business activity indices in the eurozone for February did not show a general trend. Thus, the composite index of business activity and IDA in the service sector surpassed forecast values, and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was worse than market expectations. Moreover, the last index was 49.2, and any value below 50 indicates a negative trend. Thus, we consider that in general these reports characterize business activity in the EU as negative. Disappointed with the report on orders for durable goods in the United States. The overall figure for December showed an increase of 1.2% against the forecast of +1.5%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia turned out to be negative at -4.1%. The fact that most of the published macroeconomic information was preliminary saved the pair from stronger movements. Therefore, instrument volatility remains medium in strength and is now prone to decline. From a technical point of view, the pair broke through the Ichimoku cloud and the resistance level of 1.1345, however, the pair is not able to continue moving upwards. Already on the current bar, the MACD indicator may turn down, signaling a new round of corrective movement.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair overcame the level of 1.1345. Therefore, buy orders with a target of 1.1398 are now relevant, and a turn of the MACD indicator downwards will indicate therpund of a downward correction.

Sell orders will become relevant not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the price below the Kijun-sen line and, preferably, below the level of 1.1285, but even in this case, the potential for the pair to fall below 1.1250 is very small.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.