Today, the cost of crude oil continues to move up. The main reason is quite noticeable signs of increased demand, as well as a decline in stocks in the United States. However, the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic still keeps participants in suspense, which puts pressure on oil, preventing it from making a more impressive recovery.
Futures for Brent crude oil for delivery in July rose 0.9% this morning, which allowed them to be at $ 34.97 per barrel. Futures for WTI black gold added a little more - 1.03% and began to cost 32.29 dollars per barrel.
According to data from the U.S. Petroleum Institute, last week, crude stocks fell 4.8 million barrels and reached 521.3 million barrels. From this, it follows that real indicators may turn out to be much better than the preliminary forecast of experts who claimed that an increase of about 1.2 million barrels should occur.
Gasoline stocks will also decrease by about 651 thousand barrels and distillates will decrease by 5.1 million barrels according to the API. As for the stocks of raw materials specifically in Cushing, they should be reduced by 5 million barrels.
However, other experts from S&P Global Platts, on the contrary, made the forecast not so comforting for the market. They argue that oil reserves will show growth of 2.4 million barrels, distillates will increase by 3.2 million barrels, but gasoline reserves, in turn, will decrease by 3.5 million barrels, which is associated primarily with its growth consumption after the removal of quarantine measures.
In the event that the assumptions of S&P Global Platts analysts coincide with reality, the oil market will experience even more serious pressure, which clearly will not benefit it.
Yesterday, market participants were in a very delicate situation, as they were under serious pressure over the growth of oil reserves, but they left with the June contract for WTI raw materials, which expired and successfully transferred to the contract for the next month. The demand has become more stable in the short-term.
Nevertheless, most investors still keep a low profile on the situation, as the situation with coronavirus infection does not let the world market go to the end. Particularly serious concerns are caused by the recovery of the US economy, a country that is one of the largest oil consumers in the world.
In such a difficult situation, the crude oil market is looking for the support, which it manages to find against the background of a slow but sure lifting of the quarantine in more and more countries, which is good in itself, but it can also fuel demand for raw materials. In addition to this positivity is the decline in black gold production from key OPEC countries. Most market participants express great hope that this will help maintain a balance in the market in the end, and positive dynamics will continue to be recorded. The most approximate forecasts say that it will be possible to restore the hydrocarbon market no earlier than the third quarter of this year, which in this situation can be considered the best scenario.
However, the situation can also be significantly supported by the release of a vaccine against coronavirus, the development and successful testing of which has already been announced by the largest pharmaceutical company Moderna. However, there is no sufficient reason to trust this information since no correct supporting data has been provided.
One way or another, investors' moods are still quite restrained, and the main attention is focused on official publications of the United States Department of Energy. Only after the publication of new statistics on commercial stocks of oil, gasoline and distillates, market participants will be able to act more confidently.
It can be recalled that yesterday's session ended with a decline in the cost of Brent crude oil by 3.3%, which, however, did not prevent it from maintaining its maximum value since the beginning of last month.
