Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for EUR/USD

There is an impressive increase in open interest for the euro again (+42753, open interest 678965). The data of the last COT report (Commitments of Traders from 28.07.20) showed a continuation of the trend - the major market players continue to actively acquire the euro, while it should be noted that the growth of positions is observed in all directions. As a result, everyone managed to increase their net positions once again (Non-Commercial + 32512; Commercial +36841; total net position of the general report + 4329; Dealer Intermediary + 43124). The only thing to note here is that, despite an increase in the percentage in favor of upward traders, for some groups supporting the current upward trend, the final ratio of long and short positions in the general report did not change and remained at the level (8.8%) with prevalence of short positions.

The main conclusion

The trend continues. According to the data for the reporting period (07/28/20), the priority of the current trend movement belongs to the upward traders. However, the bulls fail to change the bearish advantage and distribution of forces in the total position. As a result, the trend may slow down or a correctional decline may form in the near future.

Technical picture

The upward trend allowed the pair to work out the target for the breakdown of the weekly cloud and very optimistically close the month of July. The forming bullish Ichimoku clouds continue to rise in the direction of the upward trend. The resistance to the fulfilled goal contributed to the slowdown that was outlined on Friday. In the current working week, the result of interaction with the target (100% 1.1813) will continue to form. The players to rise need to consolidate above the worked-out goal in order to maintain their advantages, then they will have new prospects - a monthly cloud and a monthly goal. The bearish traders are likely to seek to maintain the daily slowdown in the weekly format, turning it into a downward correction.

The weekly long term trend (1.1773) is currently being tested on lower time frames. Anchoring below will change the current balance of forces to H1. In this case, the support of the classic pivot levels 1.1724 - 1.1669 - 1.1577 will become the downward reference points within the day. Maintaining the weekly trend and a return to the side of the players on the rise of the central Pivot level (1.1816) may contribute to the restoration of bullish positions and advantages. In this case, the main task will be to update the maximum extremum of the last week and month (1.1909).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)