To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Today's data on activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone countries did not allow the European currency to continue its further growth against the US dollar, as well as news regarding Brexit, where the parties failed to reach a compromise during the next round of negotiations. On the 5-minute chart, the bears achieved the formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.1754, which I paid close attention to in my morning forecast, forming a good entry point into short positions there, which brought about 25 points on the first downward movement, after which the movement slowed down.

From a technical point of view, the market situation has not changed in any way, except for a small advantage on the part of euro sellers. The first task of buyers is still the same break and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1754, which will lead to a new wave of growth of EUR/USD to the area of the maximum of 1.1796. A longer-term goal will be the level of 1.1833, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, in the second half of the day, data on activity in the US manufacturing sector, as well as important indicators on income and spending of Americans, are published, which may increase pressure on the pair. In this scenario, it is best to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1713, however, I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from a larger minimum in the area of 1.1668, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Sellers partially coped with their task and managed to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1754. As long as trading is below this level, we can expect a further decline in the euro. The main goal remains the Asian minimum of 1.1713, fixing under which will form an additional entry point for short positions and return the market to the bears, allowing them to reach the area of 1.1668, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-term goal is the support of 1.1617. If the bulls again return the pair to the resistance area of 1.1754 and there is no more serious activity from the bears on the test of this area, it is best not to rush with sales, but to wait for growth to the new resistance of 1.1796 and sell the euro there immediately for a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Let me remind you that COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for September 22 recorded an increase in both long and short positions, however, the first ones turned out to be more, which led to an increase in the delta. Apparently, such a low euro exchange rate for the first time in the last three months attracts new buyers, even despite the risk of a second wave of coronavirus infection across Europe. For example, long non-profit positions increased from 230,695 to 247,049, while short non-profit positions increased from only 52,199 to 56,227. The total non-commercial net position also rose during the reporting week to 190,822 from 178,576 a week earlier, indicating bullish market sentiment in the medium term. The more the euro declines against the US dollar, the more attractive it will be for new investors.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is just above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which calls into question the continuation of the upward correction in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1754 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1713 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.