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09.10.2020 10:01 AM
EUR/USD and GBP/USD: US budget deficit reaches 15% of GDP. Outlook for the pound darkens due to negative interest rates and Brexit.

A number of important statistics were released yesterday, but they did not greatly affect the rate of currencies in the market.

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Nonetheless, the report on the US budget deficit was noteworthy, especially since it reached a threefold increase, which indicates the strong desire of the United States to overcome the recession brought by the coronavirus pandemic. The Congressional Budget Office said the deficit hiked to $ 3.1 trillion in fiscal 2020, 15.2% of GDP, while a year earlier, it only stood at $ 984 billion, but still caused a lot of controversy and criticism. This year though, having a figure of 3.1 trillion does not cause too much concern, since most likely, the deficit will only continue to grow, as new aid packages will still be adopted.

The main contributor for the massive growth was the large-scale government spending, which, if we compare income and expenses, we will see that the budget revenue for the reporting period is to 3.4 trillion dollars, which is only 1.0% less than in the previous year. Budget spending, on the other hand, had jumped to $ 6.5 trillion, or 47%, and this is because the government gave extensive support to small businesses and laid-off workers.

On the subject of laid-off workers, jobless claims in the US remains at a fairly high level, which once again confirms the slacking recovery of the labor market. However, there is no reason to worry since it is really impossible to reduce such a record level of unemployment in such a short period of time, especially when the economy has just begun to recover from a crisis.

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Thus, the report published by the US Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims in the US fell by only 9,000 and to 840,000 for the reporting week, while in March, it was at around 7 million, and then followed by a sharp decline to 800,000-900,000, which we have seen recently.

As for the rate of the EUR / USD pair in the market, it remained unchanged since the bulls failed to get a quote above 1.1785. Only a breakout above it will bring the pair to new weekly highs in the areas 1.1830 and 1.1870. But if the pressure on risky assets returns, the bears will be able to return the euro to a quote of 1.1735, and then to a larger decline towards 1.1685.

GBP / USD

The British pound suffered yesterday, when Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, said that the Central Bank could introduce negative rates if the situation in the United Kingdom continues to deteriorate. He also said that the bank's asset repurchase program may be expanded by the end of this year, which is far from what many expected.

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If this happens, pressure on the British pound will increase. And, if you add the spiraling situation with the coronavirus and Brexit, the pound may drop tremendously in the market.

Nonetheless, as of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is still below 1.3000, and only a breakout above it will the pound be able to reach a quote of 1.3090 and 1.3170. However, if demand continues to decrease, the currency may fall to a low of 1.2845 or 1.2750.

Jakub Novak,
ইন্সটাফরেক্সের বিশ্লেষণ বিশেষজ্ঞ
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