1. Analysis of ETHTUSD volume from Binance
2. Analysis of the long-term trend
3. Analysis of the medium-term trend
4. Analysis of the short-term trend
5. Japanese candlestick analysis
6. Conclusions
7. Statistics
1. Analysis of ETHTUSD volume from Binance
The analysis is based on the horizontal volumes data on daily charts from the Binance exchange. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the direction of the horizontal level with the highest trade volume within a day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The highest trade volume is the level with the largest number of transactions carried out. That is, it is the level of major market players. Accordingly, if the highest trade volume level goes up, it indicates an upward trend. Otherwise, if the highest trade volume level goes down, it indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movements signal that the market is trading flat.
15.03.21 – the level of the highest horizontal volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 1748
16.03.21 – the level of the highest horizontal volume (POC– PointOfControl) – 1800
The POC has moved up. The price is below the POC. The market seems to have entered a correction. Therefore, one can open both long and short positions.
2. Analysis of the long-term trend
A trend is your friend. Many traders know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: to trade only in the direction of a trend. Thus, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:
long-term
medium-term
short-term
These are the trends you should analyze before entering the market. Now, let's take a look at them.
The long-term trend is the daily trend. In this case, trades are conducted in the daily time frame and are held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA(48)). If the daily candlestick closes above EMA(48), it will indicate the upward trend. Therefore, you should enter long positions. If the daily candlestick closes below EMA(48), then it is the downward trend and you should enter short positions.
The price is above EMA(48). That is why you should consider entering long positions.
3. Analysis of medium-term trend
The medium-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA(48). If the candlestick closes above EMA(48) on the 4-hour chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA(48) on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions.
The price is in line with EMA(48). It is a mid-term sideways trend. Therefore, you can open both long and short positions.
4. Analysis of short-term trend
A short-term trend is the trend in the H1 time frame. Moreover, it can show an entry point into the market well. We will turn to EMA(48) again. If the candlestick closes above EMA(48) on the H1 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Alternatively, if the candlestick closes below EMA(48), it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions.
The price is in line with EMA(48). It is a short-term sideways trend. Thus, you can both buy and sell the pair. The long-term, the medium-term, and the short-term trends do not coincide.
5. Japanese candlestick analysis
A classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this particular analysis, we will also look at the daily candlestick.
It is a black downward daily candlestick. Its low is below the low of the previous candlestick. It is a hammer candlestick pattern, heading upward. The upward movement is highly likely.
6. Conclusion
- Volume analysis – BUY/SELL.
- Long-term trend – BUY.
- Medium-term trend – BUY/SELL.
- Short-term trend – BUY/SELL.
- Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY.
Conclusion: You can both buy and sell the instrument on March 17, 2021.
7. Statistics
To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCHUSD. Trading account monitoring:
Gains for two months of 2021: +12.21%.
Statement:
Current deals:
09.03.21 Ethereum BUY: 1831 SL: 1619; Risk per deal: 1% of a $10,000 deposit with 0.48 lot.
A Stop Loss for new orders is placed beyond the daily extreme points. We do not set a Take Profit because we will continue to move the Stop Loss above the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.
Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.
Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!
