The euro-dollar pair updated this year's price low dropping to 1.1762 on Thursday. In general, the past week turned out to be successful for dollar bulls, and, accordingly, for EUR/USD bears. In just three days, the greenback strengthened against the euro by almost 200 points, while since the beginning of the year, sellers have been able to win back almost 500 points. The downward trend is in full swing, so today's price pullback, which is primarily due to the "Friday factor", can be used as an excuse to open short positions. The fundamental picture is still on the side of the greenback, although Joe Biden, on Thursday, did not justify the "trust", and to be more precise, did not meet the expectations of dollar bulls.

Let me remind you that yesterday was Biden's first press conference as President of the United States. The head of the White House delayed this event for quite a long time (64 days) and even set a kind of record – he became the first US president in the last hundred years to postpone his first press conference for 9 weeks after the inauguration. Therefore, this event attracted special attention of traders, especially given the previous rumors about the development of a new economic plan.

At the beginning of this week, the American press reported that the White House advisers had developed a large-scale economic plan that involves the creation of additional jobs and the construction of infrastructure. In particular, we are talking about the financing of road construction, bridges, and railways. The second part of the project provides hundreds of billions of dollars for educational infrastructure, the development of preschool education, increased spending on child care, and additional assistance to those Americans affected by the COVID pandemic.

As for the total volume of this project, there is no exact information yet. Initially, Washington Post journalists announced the amount of $3 trillion. But a little later, insiders of CNN and Bloomberg reported that there was no final estimate yet - but according to preliminary data, the total amount will range from 2 to 4 trillion. It is also known that this plan is being developed in conjunction with the tax reform, which provides for an increase in corporate tax to 28% (from the current 21%). It is also proposed to increase taxes for wealthy Americans, whose annual income exceeds $400,000. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, the main focus will be on raising those taxes for business, which were lowered in 2017, during the Trump administration. If the White House implements its intentions, American companies will pay higher taxes on activities abroad and on profits in the United States.

All the leading American media are talking about the grandiose plans of the White House. The projected volume of fiscal stimulus is unprecedented (even more so given the aid packages already adopted), and the major federal tax hike will be the first in nearly three decades (the first since 1993). This information background pushed the dollar up throughout the market, especially against the background of the growth of key macroeconomic indicators.

Joe Biden, in turn, yesterday could significantly strengthen the position of dollar bulls, announcing a tax increase and confirming the development of the above plan. However, the US president just casually touched on this topic. He only stated that "improving infrastructure will be an important source of new jobs." At the same time, he stressed the importance of this issue. That, in fact, is all. All the other questions and answers related to other topics – immigration, gun control, electoral reform, international relations, and so on.

In other words, Biden somewhat disappointed investors, although indirectly (very, very indirectly) confirmed that the White House intends to improve the infrastructure in the country. But this remark was not enough for the development of a downward trend. The EUR/USD pair initially drifted in the middle of the 17th figure, and today it headed back to the 18th price level. Against the background of the fading downward momentum, sellers began to take profits, without risking leaving open positions for the weekend. The immediate reason for the upward correction was the macroeconomic reports published today in the United States. Core inflation grew in February by 1.4% y/y, although according to preliminary forecasts, it should have come out at the level of January at 1.5%. The level of household spending came out at -1.0% - this is the most negative result since April last year.

And yet, in my opinion, the EUR/USD bears only paused the next offensive. First, after a multi-day downward movement, the corrective growth looks quite logical. Secondly, the dollar still enjoys the support of those fundamental factors that "pushed" it up over the previous days and weeks. The market is still waiting for further steps from the White House. Joe Biden did not refute the rumors spread in the media, while the relevant insiders were published by quite influential and authoritative American publications. It is also worth recalling that the aid package of $1.9 trillion is already being successfully implemented (which will soon affect inflation indicators), and the labor market is recovering at a faster pace. Well, plus, the United States leads both in the total number of vaccinations made (more than 134 million) and in the average number of vaccinations per day (2.5 million "anti-covid" injections per day). By the way, the European Union is not even among the top five in these indicators.

All this suggests that short positions on the EUR/USD pair are still a priority. This is also evidenced by the technical picture: the price on the daily chart is located between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as under all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which formed a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. The first target of the downward movement is the mark of 1.1740 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on D1), the main target is the "round" and psychologically important mark of 1.1700, the breakout of which will open the way for the bears to the price area of 1.15-1.16.