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02.04.2021 06:53 AM
Simple recommendations for entering and leaving the market for novice traders (analysis of transactions on Forex). EURUSD and GBPUSD on April 2

Buy and sell levels of EURUSD on April 2. Analysis of transactions

Analysis of transactions

Yesterday, a fairly large number of signals to enter the market was formed for the euro, but all of them, with the exception of the last one for long positions, had to be ignored. The chart shows how the first sell trades at the price of 1.1715 were formed when the MACD indicator was in the oversold area. Similarly, with longs in the first half of the day at the price of 1.1740: when this level was tested, the indicators of MACD were off the scale and were in the overbought area. The correct entry point was only formed in the second half of the day at 14.20 during the next update of 1.1740 – coinciding with the zero area of the MACD indicator. This scenario allowed us to count on a more active growth from the euro, which happened: at the end of the day, we reached the resistance of 1.1772, which brought about 30 points of profit.

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Today's entry and exit recommendations

Good data on changes in the volume of retail trade in Germany, as well as activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone countries for March made it possible for the euro to grow against the dollar, continuing the upward correction that formed at the end of last month. Today, the situation is a little different. Good Friday is celebrated in the EU and the UK and trading volume promises to be extremely low, as well as volatility. We will receive quite important reports on the US unemployment rate and the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in the second half of the day. Very good indicators are expected, which can cause the dollar to strengthen against the euro. But be careful, because today's market volatility will be quite unpredictable and movements can be in any direction and most likely contrary to common sense. Therefore, the most optimal scenario is to refuse to trade.

For long positions

Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1789 (the green line on the chart) with the purpose of pushing it to reach the 1.1821 level. At the point of 1.1821, I recommend leaving the market with a profit and sell the euro immediately in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 10-15 points in the opposite direction from the level). Good Friday in the EU will limit volatility in the morning, so all the focus is on the US labor market report. It's important (!) that before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.

For short positions

You can sell the euro after reaching 1.1762 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1715, where I recommend leaving the market and buying the euro immediately in the opposite direction (the calculation is for a movement of 10-15 points in the opposite direction from the level). Strong US data will bring new sellers of risky assets back to the market, which can cause the trading instrument to immediately fall in the second half of the day. It's important (!) that before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Buy and sell levels of GBP USD on April 2. Analysis of transactions

Analysis of transactions

The pound continued its upward correction yesterday, but it was not possible to get good entry points from the market. In the first half of the day, the price test of 1.3770 coincided with the oversold MACD indicator – there is no entry point. Then there was a repeated test of this level when the MACD indicator was found near the zero mark – this is a signal to sell the pound, which was not realized in any way, which led to losses. In the US session, we watched the price update at 1.3799, where I advised you to buy the pound. But that trade had to be skipped, since the MACD indicator was in the overbought area at that time, which limited the upward potential for the pair.

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Today's entry and exit recommendations

The pound's growth from yesterday came after we received quite good reports on manufacturing activity. We don't have important reports on the UK economy today and it's also Good Friday so these will limit the pair's growth potential, which will lead to low trading volume and weak market volatility. Quite important reports on the US unemployment rate and the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector will be released in the afternoon. Very good indicators are expected, which can cause the dollar to strengthen against the pound. Today's market volatility will be quite unpredictable and movements can be in any direction and most likely contrary to common sense. Therefore, the most optimal scenario is to refuse to trade.

For long positions

You can buy the pound today when you reach the entry point in the area of 1.3857 (the green line on the chart) with the purpose of pushing it to reach the 1.3894 level (the thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 1.3894, I recommend leaving long positions and opening short positions in the opposite direction (the calculation is for a movement of 10-15 points in the opposite direction from the level). We can talk about the pound's growth only if we receive a disappointing report on the US labor market. It's important (!) that before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.

For short positions

You can sell the pound only after an update of the 1.3822 level (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target will be 1.3759, where I recommend leaving short positions, as well as to quickly open long positions in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 10-15 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to bet on the pound's decline at the end of the week after we receive the US Non-Farm Employment report. Good indicators and a decline in the unemployment rate are sure to return demand for the US dollar in the afternoon. It's important (!) that before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

This image is no longer relevant

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
ইন্সটাফরেক্সের বিশ্লেষণ বিশেষজ্ঞ
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