21.02.2024 04:42 PM
Analysis for GBP/USD on February 21, 2024

Regarding the GBP/USD pair, the wave analysis remains quite clear and, at the same time, complex. The construction of a new downtrend segment continues, with the first wave taking on a very prolonged form. The second wave also turned out to be quite extensive, giving us every reason to expect a prolonged construction of the third wave.

At the moment, I am not entirely certain that the construction of wave 2 or b is complete. The retreat of quotes from the achieved peaks is too small to consider it a guaranteed start of wave 3 or c. Wave 2 or b has already taken on a five-wave form, but it remains corrective and should end soon (or has already ended). Nevertheless, we continue to observe the construction of new and new internal waves, which are currently very difficult to attribute to any specific higher-scale wave.

Targets for the decline of the pair within the presumed wave 3 or c are located below the level of 1.2039, corresponding to the low of wave 1 or a. Unfortunately, wave analysis tends to be complicated and does not correspond to the news background. At the moment, I do not abandon the working scenario; a successful attempt to break the 38.2% Fibonacci level indicates the market's readiness to sell the pound.

The level of 1.2627 now hinders the British pound from rising

The GBP/USD pair also decreased by just 10 basis points on Wednesday. However, attaching special importance to this movement is not necessary. What we saw in the first half of the day was just normal market noise. The news background is absent, and even Andrew Bailey's statements yesterday did not significantly affect market sentiment. For several hours after Bailey's speech, demand for the pound increased, but then a decline in the pair began, continuing today. The British pound has strengthened over the past 24 hours, but by how much? By 10 basis points? Even Andrew Bailey's statements couldn't stir the market.

This is very strange since some of the statements of the Bank of England Governor cannot be ignored. In particular, he stated that the regulator may start lowering rates before reaching the inflation target of 2%. Bailey also noted that inflation is decreasing at a good pace, but the regulator expects more progress. Both of these statements can be considered "dovish" since Governor Bailey signaled to the market that inflation will continue to slow down, and rates may start to decline not as late as it may seem to some now. In any case, he did not talk about the need to maintain the current "hawkish" stance and did not complain about inflation, which is decreasing very slowly. The market could well have reduced demand for the pound yesterday.

General Conclusions.

The wave picture of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am considering selling the pair with targets located below the level of 1.2039 because wave 2 or b cannot last forever, like a sideways movement. A successful attempt to break the level of 1.2627 became a signal for sales. Another signal was formed this week in the form of an unsuccessful attempt to break this level from below. Now I have some confidence in the decline of the pair, at least to the level of 1.2468, which would already be a significant achievement for the dollar, demand for which remains low despite everything.

On a larger wave scale, the picture is similar to the EUR/USD pair, but there are still some differences. The descending correctional trend segment continues its construction, and its second wave has taken on an extended form - up to 61.8% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break this level may lead to the start of building wave 3 or c.

Chin Zhao,
ইন্সটাফরেক্সের বিশ্লেষণ বিশেষজ্ঞ
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