GBP/USD

The British pound plummeted by 102 pips on Friday, easily surpassing our target level of 1.2460 and forming another one at 1.2427, based on the peak of November 6, 2023. However, the level of 1.2460 remains firm, now serving as the upper boundary of the consolidation range. Consolidating above it may extend the correction to 1.2515, towards the February 5 low.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the lower half of its own descending channel. We expect the pair to reach the lower boundary of this channel, and afterwards a corrective phase may follow. By the time the oscillator reaches its lower boundary, the quote may fall by approximately another one and a half figures, into the target range of 1.2287-1.2307, towards the peaks of October 24 and November 9, 2023. The nearest target is 1.2370, gaining significance as an intermediate level.

On the 4-hour chart, the price consolidates within the range of 1.2427/60 awaiting today's US retail sales data. If any other important news emerges before the release from the Department of Commerce, the pound may soon consolidate below 1.2427. The Marlin oscillator does not show signs of a reversal, merely correcting and relieving tension before it falls further.