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19.07.201900:13:00UTC+00中国不断增长的家庭债务可能拖累经济增长:惠誉

惠誉评级周五发布的一份报告称,中国家庭偿债成本上升可能会对中期经济增长造成压力。 该评级机构指出,到2018年底,家庭债务迅速增加,达到可支配收入的85%。虽然偿债成本不会对金融稳定构成近期风险,但它将对中期的增长前景构成压力。 惠誉预计,在抵押借款的推动下,去年家庭债务上升至GDP的53%左右。 中国的家庭债务与可支配收入比率低于大多数发达市场。但惠誉认为差距将迅速缩小,如果增长率保持不受限制,该比率将在本十年末接近100%。 由于政策宽松似乎已经获得牵引力,惠誉早些时候将中国今年的增长前景提升至6.2%。但是,2020年的预测降至6%。 惠誉表示,鉴于住房贷款对家庭的重大影响,房地产价格的大幅调整是一个下行风险。

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