26.02.202616:28:29UTC+00TTF Prices Surge on Iran Tensions, Hormuz Risks

European natural gas futures jumped more than 4% to above €32/MWh after Iranian state media reported that Tehran would not allow enriched uranium to be removed from the country, underscoring rising tensions in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva ahead of President Donald Trump’s deadline for an agreement. Although Omani mediators had earlier described the talks as constructive, renewed fears of escalation have heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for nearly 20% of global LNG trade, including shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Any blockage there would substantially tighten global gas supplies, with Europe especially vulnerable after losing most of its Russian pipeline deliveries and increasing its dependence on LNG. Compounding the risk, EU gas storage levels remain low, with inventories below 31% compared with 40% a year earlier, including just 20.5% in Germany and 21% in France. Even so, higher wind and solar generation and strong LNG inflows expected into March could help alleviate some of the supply pressure.