05.03.202614:14:47UTC+00TTF Prices Volatile on Thursday

European natural gas futures fluctuated around €50/MWh on Thursday, oscillating between gains and losses after an 8% decline in the previous session that followed Russian President Putin’s threat to cut off gas supplies to Europe. However, Russian pipeline deliveries to the EU have already dropped sharply in recent years and are expected to fall further under the EU’s ban on Russian gas imports. Russia is projected to account for only about 13% of EU gas imports in 2025.

Even so, any complete halt in Russian flows would increase risks to Europe’s supply balance, which is already under strain from disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. The world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar remains offline, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted.

On Wednesday, prices fell 8.3% after reports that Iran had contacted the US to discuss ending the conflict, although Tehran later denied this. At the same time, President Trump stated that the US would guarantee and escort vessels transiting the Strait, but the specifics of that plan remain unclear. These developments come as EU gas storage levels are tight, currently below 30% of total capacity.