30.03.202602:57:23UTC+00BoJ Eyes Gradual Policy Shift Amid Risks

Further policy rate increases in Japan remain appropriate as economic activity and prices continue to improve, with monetary accommodation to be scaled back gradually if the current outlook is maintained. The Bank of Japan’s March Summary of Opinions highlighted that, despite earlier rate hikes, overall financial conditions remain accommodative. Recent weakness in investment has been driven mainly by labor shortages and higher material costs, rather than by the impact of higher interest rates.

At the same time, uncertainty stemming from tensions in the Middle East has weighed on business and market sentiment, leading the Policy Board to leave rates unchanged at its latest meeting. The path of future tightening will depend on developments in wages, inflation, financial conditions, and geopolitical risks. Policymakers will closely track whether monetary conditions remain loose and how extensively wage gains and “beginning-of-period price hikes” spread through the economy.

While external risks could simultaneously push prices higher and restrain growth, inflation is still expected to move upward over time. Against this backdrop, officials stressed the importance of adjusting policy without undue delay if the current conditions and outlook are sustained, while also preventing inflation from remaining persistently above the 2% target.