09.04.202613:33:23UTC+00Poland Holds Key Rate as Expected

The National Bank of Poland left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at its April meeting, in line with market expectations. The earlier optimism voiced at the previous meeting about the Middle East conflict has since faded, and the inflation outlook is now seen as more uncertain. Inflation is not expected to return to the NBP’s 2.5% target before the end of next year.

Headline inflation accelerated to 3% in March, its highest level in eight months, from 2.1% in February, largely due to a sharp rise in fuel prices. At the same time, annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was unchanged.

Economic growth is projected to slow in the first quarter of 2026, easing from a 4% expansion at the end of 2025 as supply-side constraints increasingly weigh on activity. The NBP indicated that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data on inflation and economic conditions. It also highlighted risks stemming from rising global commodity prices, domestic fiscal policy, fuel-price regulations, and developments in wage growth.