empty
 
 

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading strategy for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 16th. The stalemate of Boris Johnson
time 16.09.2019 10:23 AM
time Relevance up to, 17.09.2019 10:10 AM

EUR/USD – 4H.

This image is no longer relevant

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the correctional level of 100.0% (according to Fibonacci), in accordance to the previously obtained signal of "consolidating above the Fibo level of 127.2%". The rebound of quotations from this level allows traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024). I also note the rebound not only from the Fibo level of 100.0% but also from the upper line of the downward trend channel. And this is a very strong signal to sales and characterizes the mood of traders of the currency market.

Last Friday in the European Union information background was zero, and several not-so-important reports came out in the United States. According to information received from America, retail sales in August rose by 0.4%, and the consumer confidence index rose to 92.0. The dynamics are positive, but the Fed meeting looms on the horizon, and traders seem to expect nothing more than a reduction in the key rate. However, the Fed meeting is still two full days away, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Today, September 16, the picture for the euro/dollar currency pair is unlikely to change, as no economic reports are expected during the day. Today, traders can extend their weekend for one day. But on Tuesday and Wednesday, I still expect an increase in activity, since, in anticipation of the Fed meeting, traders can start to work out possible solutions to the regulator in advance. Despite the rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0%, the euro has a good chance of continuing to grow, especially if Jerome Powell reduces the key rate. Thus, I recommend conducting a very cautious trade until Wednesday.

What to expect today from the euro/dollar currency pair?

On September 16, I expect that traders will lead a quiet trade, it is unlikely to open a lot of new positions. In other words, I do not expect any serious moves and changes in the rate of EUR/USD today. The consolidation of the rate above the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.1106) will automatically mean a close above the downward channel, which will break the current downward trend. It will also mean that traders expect nothing more from the Fed than a rate cut, and are ready to change the vector of their trade for the coming weeks or even months.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.0927 if the consolidation is made below the level of 1.1024. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.1029.

You can buy the pair after closing above the level of 1.1106 with the target of 1.1164. A stop-loss order below the level of 100.0% (Fibonacci).

GBP/USD – 4H.

This image is no longer relevant

Boris Johnson has few options to withdraw the UK from the European Union on October 31. So far, the Prime Minister is busy handing out interviews, in which he continues to claim that negotiations with the European Union over the agreement are continuing and even some progress is visible. The European Union officially notes the lack of any progress in the key issue for the parties – the border on the island of Ireland. So far, everything goes to the fact that Brexit will still be postponed for 3 months, because if at the summit on October 17, London and Brussels do not sign the so-called "deal", then Johnson will have to ask the EU to postpone. Now, Johnson is also busy that escalates the situation regarding the possible postponement of Brexit at a later date. He has already said that, despite the ruling of Parliament, he still intends to implement Brexit with or without a deal. Insider information suggests that Johnson may ask EU officials not to grant a reprieve. But it is unlikely that Johnson will legally implement Brexit on time. This is because he has no support in parliament. Most of the parliament is against Johnson, against his policies, and is very angry that the prime minister sent deputies on leave so that they could not influence the implementation of Brexit "No Deal". That is why the deputies have united at a difficult time and passed several important bills that shackle Johnson's hands within a week. And tomorrow, there will be a Supreme Court hearing, which may decide that Johnson's decision to suspend parliament is illegal and parliamentarians will be able to return to their duties. Thus, either Johnson will find a common language with parliamentarians, and they will approve Brexit "No Deal", or Johnson will have to break the law, and how it will end then is completely impossible to predict.

What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?

The pound/dollar pair has fulfilled the growth to the correctional level of 38.2 (1.2501) and rebound from this Fibo level. Thus, I expect a slight drop in quotations on Monday, September 16, in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% (1.2293). There will be no background information for GBP/USD on Monday. At the same time, I recommend continuing to monitor any information on the subject of Brexit. Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the British currency and in favor of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 50.0% (1.2668).

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.2668 and a stop below the level of 1.2501 if a close above the Fibo level of 38.2% is performed.

I recommend selling the pair now with the target of 1.2308, since a rebound from the level of 1.2501 was performed, with the stop-loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2%.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2022
立即从分析师的建议受益
充值交易账户
开设交易账户

InstaForex分析评论将让您充分了解市场趋势! 作为InstaForex的客户,您将获得大量的免费服务以实现有效的交易。

  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Ferrari from InstaForex
    Top up your account with at least $1,000
    join the contest and win Ferrari
    F8 Tributo
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and win $1,000
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2022

Last Friday, the euro touched the lower shadow of the support at 1.0360, this morning it did the same thing. The price needs to settle under this level

Laurie Bailey 03:34 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 28, 2022

A double divergence has already formed on the daily chart. If the price doesn't form a triple divergence, then it is already time for it to reverse to a medium-term

Laurie Bailey 03:34 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 28, 2022

This morning, the Australian dollar decided to form a double top on the daily chart. The base of this figure is the nearest target level at 0.6595. Crossing the base

Laurie Bailey 03:29 2022-11-28 UTC+2

American stock indices are changing in different directions

There are no statistical releases scheduled for Friday. In this case, the session will be shortened and will end at 21:00 GMT+2. In this regard, trading activity is likely

Thomas Frank 03:29 2022-11-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Alarming news from China

The U.S. dollar index paused its "downward trek" on Thursday after traders played back the release of what they considered the dovish minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting. However

Irina Manzenko 14:39 2022-11-27 UTC+2

How to trade GBP/USD on November 28, 2022. Simple trading tips and analysis for beginners

GBP/USD showed even worse movement than EUR/USD on Friday. If the euro showed at least some form of local movements during the day, then the pound was flat. Again

Paolo Greco 13:31 2022-11-27 UTC+2

How to trade EUR/USD on November 28, 2022. Simple trading tips and analysis for beginners

The EUR/USD trade was very boring on Friday. There were no important events or reports in the EU or the US. The market could not react to anything

Paolo Greco 13:31 2022-11-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD analysis for November 27. Scotland does not abandon attempts to terminate the union with the United Kingdom.

The wave marking for the pound/dollar instrument currently appears quite confusing, but it still needs to be clarified. We have a completed downward trend section consisting of five waves (a-b-c-d-e)

Chin Zhao 12:18 2022-11-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD analysis for November 27. The ECB rate will increase, but the euro cannot increase.

The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart is convincing. The upward portion of the trend has corrected itself. Initially, I believed three waves would develop

Chin Zhao 12:17 2022-11-27 UTC+2

Euro: Business as usual, time for fun

Thanksgiving day, the closing of the U.S. stock markets and the outflow of liquidity caused the EUR/USD pair to get bored at the end of the last full week

Marek Petkovich 13:58 2022-11-26 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.