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Analisis Forex & Kajian: Trading strategy for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 16th. The stalemate of Boris Johnson
time 16.09.2019 10:23 AM
time Relevance up to, 17.09.2019 10:10 AM

EUR/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the correctional level of 100.0% (according to Fibonacci), in accordance to the previously obtained signal of "consolidating above the Fibo level of 127.2%". The rebound of quotations from this level allows traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024). I also note the rebound not only from the Fibo level of 100.0% but also from the upper line of the downward trend channel. And this is a very strong signal to sales and characterizes the mood of traders of the currency market.

Last Friday in the European Union information background was zero, and several not-so-important reports came out in the United States. According to information received from America, retail sales in August rose by 0.4%, and the consumer confidence index rose to 92.0. The dynamics are positive, but the Fed meeting looms on the horizon, and traders seem to expect nothing more than a reduction in the key rate. However, the Fed meeting is still two full days away, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Today, September 16, the picture for the euro/dollar currency pair is unlikely to change, as no economic reports are expected during the day. Today, traders can extend their weekend for one day. But on Tuesday and Wednesday, I still expect an increase in activity, since, in anticipation of the Fed meeting, traders can start to work out possible solutions to the regulator in advance. Despite the rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0%, the euro has a good chance of continuing to grow, especially if Jerome Powell reduces the key rate. Thus, I recommend conducting a very cautious trade until Wednesday.

What to expect today from the euro/dollar currency pair?

On September 16, I expect that traders will lead a quiet trade, it is unlikely to open a lot of new positions. In other words, I do not expect any serious moves and changes in the rate of EUR/USD today. The consolidation of the rate above the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.1106) will automatically mean a close above the downward channel, which will break the current downward trend. It will also mean that traders expect nothing more from the Fed than a rate cut, and are ready to change the vector of their trade for the coming weeks or even months.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.0927 if the consolidation is made below the level of 1.1024. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.1029.

You can buy the pair after closing above the level of 1.1106 with the target of 1.1164. A stop-loss order below the level of 100.0% (Fibonacci).

GBP/USD – 4H.

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Boris Johnson has few options to withdraw the UK from the European Union on October 31. So far, the Prime Minister is busy handing out interviews, in which he continues to claim that negotiations with the European Union over the agreement are continuing and even some progress is visible. The European Union officially notes the lack of any progress in the key issue for the parties – the border on the island of Ireland. So far, everything goes to the fact that Brexit will still be postponed for 3 months, because if at the summit on October 17, London and Brussels do not sign the so-called "deal", then Johnson will have to ask the EU to postpone. Now, Johnson is also busy that escalates the situation regarding the possible postponement of Brexit at a later date. He has already said that, despite the ruling of Parliament, he still intends to implement Brexit with or without a deal. Insider information suggests that Johnson may ask EU officials not to grant a reprieve. But it is unlikely that Johnson will legally implement Brexit on time. This is because he has no support in parliament. Most of the parliament is against Johnson, against his policies, and is very angry that the prime minister sent deputies on leave so that they could not influence the implementation of Brexit "No Deal". That is why the deputies have united at a difficult time and passed several important bills that shackle Johnson's hands within a week. And tomorrow, there will be a Supreme Court hearing, which may decide that Johnson's decision to suspend parliament is illegal and parliamentarians will be able to return to their duties. Thus, either Johnson will find a common language with parliamentarians, and they will approve Brexit "No Deal", or Johnson will have to break the law, and how it will end then is completely impossible to predict.

What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?

The pound/dollar pair has fulfilled the growth to the correctional level of 38.2 (1.2501) and rebound from this Fibo level. Thus, I expect a slight drop in quotations on Monday, September 16, in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% (1.2293). There will be no background information for GBP/USD on Monday. At the same time, I recommend continuing to monitor any information on the subject of Brexit. Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the British currency and in favor of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 50.0% (1.2668).

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.2668 and a stop below the level of 1.2501 if a close above the Fibo level of 38.2% is performed.

I recommend selling the pair now with the target of 1.2308, since a rebound from the level of 1.2501 was performed, with the stop-loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2%.

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