empty
 
 

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of EUR/USD on October 3rd. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Again, the index of business activity
time 03.10.2019 08:01 AM
time Relevance up to, 04.10.2019 06:25 AM

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 119.6726

The fourth trading day for the EUR/USD currency pair began with overcoming the moving average line. Thus, the trend has changed at the moment to an upward one in the short term. The euro can breathe calmly, as it is not expected to fall again shortly. At the same time, bears should not relax because the euro often surprisingly receives new fundamental reasons for the fall.

Today, October 3, the European Union and the United States will publish indices of business activity in services, as well as composite indices of business activity. We remember how "good" were the indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector, published on Monday. In the service sector, things are a little better, but this does not mean that the sphere does not experience any problems. Previously, Mario Draghi has already stated that the problem sphere of production can "pull along" other spheres. According to experts, the European index will be 52.0. Having studied the data for the last years, we can say that the index has never fallen below 50.0 for 5 years, and the usual and normal value for it is 53.0 and above. Thus, although it is too early to talk about the decline in the EU services sector, the indicator is slowly sliding to a critical point. In the US, business activity in the services sector is a little better. The key ISM index is projected at 55.1 and implies a slight decline from 56.4. The second indicator – Markit – is ready to fall to 50.9, which is dangerously close to 50.0. In general, these indicators will be the most interesting for market participants today. We, as before, believe that the economic situation in the United States remains stronger, so we expect a slowdown in business activity in the eurozone and the United States, but in the eurozone, we believe that the slowdown will be stronger and weaker indicators.

In addition to the two above-mentioned indices, retail sales in the European Union will also be released today, and experts' forecasts predict another slowdown in growth to 1.9% y/y. Well, in the States, production orders for August will also come out with a forecast of -0.2%.

Now let's try to figure out what the euro/dollar currency pair needs to continue this seemingly long-awaited growth? Firstly, it is certainly the absence of outright failures with macroeconomic statistics from the European Union. Secondly, the weakest possible data from America. And we believe that with both of these conditions, the pair will have problems. However, we do not recommend traders to try to guess what will be today's macroeconomic reports, it is better to follow the general trend that has formed in the market. It is best to return to sales based on it after the pair has re-attached below the moving average line.

Nearest support levels:

S1 –1.0925

S2 – 1.0864

S3 – 1.0803

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0986

R2 – 1.1047

R3 – 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues its corrective movement, already above the moving average. Thus, the bears are still recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and resume selling the euro with the target of Murray's level of "2/8" – 1.0864 after the reverse consolidation below the moving average. Purchases of the pair can formally be considered very small lots now with a target of 1.0986.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2022
立即从分析师的建议受益
充值交易账户
开设交易账户

InstaForex分析评论将让您充分了解市场趋势! 作为InstaForex的客户,您将获得大量的免费服务以实现有效的交易。

  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Ferrari from InstaForex
    Top up your account with at least $1,000
    join the contest and win Ferrari
    F8 Tributo
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and win $1,000
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Euro: Business as usual, time for fun

Thanksgiving day, the closing of the U.S. stock markets and the outflow of liquidity caused the EUR/USD pair to get bored at the end of the last full week

Marek Petkovich 13:58 2022-11-26 UTC+2

AUD/NZD. Marathon: Kiwi starts and wins

This week, the New Zealand dollar received substantial support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: the central bank fully justified the hawkish hopes of most experts by raising

Irina Manzenko 13:54 2022-11-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Stubborn 4th figure: Bulls have reached the limit of their capabilities

Bulls on the EUR/USD pair are desperately trying to rise above the 1.0400 level: they repeatedly tried to attack the 4th figure in November, but failed each time. Traders fail

Irina Manzenko 13:43 2022-11-26 UTC+2

Weekly review of GBP/USD for November 21-25, 2022

All elements being clearly bullish, it would be possible for traders to trade only long positions on the GBP/USD pair as long as the price remains well above the golden

Mourad El Keddani 13:42 2022-11-26 UTC+2

Oil ended the week in the red, and the EU countries are in disagreement

Even though this week ended in the red, oil prices rose steadily during Friday trading. The market is still being affected by traders' concerns about China's potential oil demand

Natalia Andreeva 09:21 2022-11-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis for the trading week of November 21-25. COT report. The decision of the British Supreme Court supported the pound.

During the most recent week, the GBP/USD currency pair has risen by an additional 200 points. This means that the upward trend is still going strong, and the pound

Paolo Greco 08:54 2022-11-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis for the trading week of November 21-25. COT report. The euro currency is once again supported by the market.

This week, the EUR/USD currency pair has again been trading higher. This week, the macroeconomic and fundamental background was nonexistent, but traders still bought euros. Similar trends have been observed

Paolo Greco 08:54 2022-11-26 UTC+2

Ethereum confirms its breakout

ETH/USD retreated a little in the short term after its strong rally. The retreat was natural and now it has developed a bullish pattern. It was trading at 1,185

Ralph Shedler 18:48 2022-11-25 UTC+2

USD/CHF in range pattern, 0.9393 as downside obstacle

The currency pair is moving sideways in the short term. It was trading at 0.9457 at the time of writing. It's trapped between 0.9383 (downside obstacle) and 0.9599 (upside obstacle)

Ralph Shedler 18:47 2022-11-25 UTC+2

Bitcoin continues to trade sideways in a new trading range.

After the FTX scandal and the sell off towards $15,500, Bitcoin has found some balance and is mostly moving sideways. The bulls are absent and there is not enough strength

Alexandros Yfantis 17:57 2022-11-25 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.