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Forex Analysis & Reviews: 黄金:泡沫破灭
time 25.11.2021 09:09 AM
time Relevance up to, 29.11.2021 01:41 PM

尽管买家们齐声唱着黄金颂歌,在睡梦中看到黄金价格达到每盎司2000美元,但人们不可能逃避事实。由于杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)再次被任命为美联储主席,以及FOMC上次会议记录中"鹰派"言论的预期,贵金属价格从11月的高点下跌了4.5%。投资者相信,新上任的美联储主席将能够通过迅速缩减量化宽松并很快提高联邦基金利率来遏制通胀。货币刺激措施的退出对美元兑美元的多头来说是非常不愉快的消息。

就像萨克斯银行和其他公司目前认为黄金价格下跌是由于对冲基金的多头获利了结一样,过去两周我一直坚持认为贵金属的上涨纯粹是投机性的。好吧,在美元指数升至16个月高点和投资者不愿增加ETF股票的背景下,黄金/美元报价不可能出现跳跃式增长。没错,美国国债的实际收益率助了黄金一臂之力,但鲍威尔的第二任期发生了很大变化。

5年期债券的盈亏平衡率连续5天下降,表明通胀预期下降。在美国债务债券名义收益率上涨的背景下,它们的实际利率也在上升,这使这种贵金属失去了一张关键的王牌。据瑞士信贷银行称,由于美国国债收益率只有一条上升之路,黄金兑美元的"多头"将继续回落。原因在于,美联储打算借助比预期更早的货币政策正常化来遏制肆虐的通胀。

然而,这一理论也有反对者。汇丰认为,债券市场利率下降的长期因素将使其在很长一段时间内保持在低水平。这些问题包括人口老龄化和美国债务负担的增加,美国债务占GDP的比例自二战以来首次超过100%。

美国债务负担的动态

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根据美国人口普查局的预测,美国65岁以上人口的比例将从2020年的17%上升到2023年的21%。老年人偏好低风险投资,可能支撑对公债的强劲需求。

当然,所有这些都是真的。但在经济周期的这个阶段,与GDP的回归的趋势和美联储的货币政策正常化,10年期债券利率的可能性增加到3月高点1.75%的水平明显高于他们的机会回到八月底1.17%。这种情况给这种贵金属带来了逆风。

从技术上讲,对沃尔夫波模式实施的押注赢回了100%。金价回落至每盎司1,850美元以下,让我们有机会将目标价位定在1,790美元,这一目标实现得非常成功。在未来,如果成功冲击1788美元的合理价值和1778美元的关键点位,将增加继续达到每盎司1748美元和1718美元峰值的风险。

黄金,每日图表

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Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
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