28.11.2022 04:35 PM
EUR/USD analysis for November 28. Unexpected growth in the euro marked the beginning of the week.

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Although it still looks compelling, the wave marking on the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument needs to be adjusted. The upward portion of the trend has corrected itself. We have discovered a sophisticated a-b-c-d-e wave correction structure. Since the peak of wave e exceeds the peak of wave C, if the current wave layout is accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished or already be finished. In this instance, it is anticipated that we will construct at least three waves downward, but if the most recent phase of the trend is corrective, the subsequent phase would probably be impulsive. Therefore, I am preparing for a new significant decline in the instrument. The market will be ready to sell when a new attempt to break the 1.0359 mark, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci, is successful. The entire wave e, however, turns out to be longer, and the most recent decline of the instrument is the first wave of a new descending section because quotes have moved away from the lows they reached last week and on Monday. However, the alleged waves two or b might still exist because they only punctured the wave e's peak. Because there isn't an increase in demand for US currency, the wave pattern is generally starting to become muddled.

Although there is no current news, interest in the euro is again rising.

The euro/dollar instrument increased by 75 basis points to begin the new week. The increase from the day's low was 150 points, but the instrument fell at night. The fact that the market is trading so actively on the first day of the week surprises me more than the increasing demand for the euro. At the time the article was written, there was no relevant news, but ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a speech today. It is unlikely that Lagarde's future performance was why the market was trading so briskly.

Most of the most recent news came from China, where the "coronavirus" is becoming more prevalent. Since the nation has already implemented strict regulations to halt the rapid spread of COVID, this unnerves investors and market participants. These limitations portend new business, economic, and industrial activity declines, which will negatively impact other economic indicators. As a result, there is now a new threat to China's economy, which depends on many other nations' economies. In these circumstances, it would be much more logical if the market saw a rise in demand for the dollar as a safe currency. But it's also important to keep in mind that during the first year of the pandemic, there was a decline in the demand for dollars, so this is what we can see now. Of course, the pandemic does not present the same threat it did in 2019–2020. Humanity is now largely prepared for it. However, if it weren't for this aspect, I'd still think that work should start in the downward trend section. Now, I'm not so sure about this.

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Conclusions in general

I conclude that the upward trend section's construction is complete and has increased complexity to five waves. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. There is a chance that the upward section of the trend will become more complicated and take on an extended form, but this chance is currently at most 10%.

The wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this section is finished, work on a downward trend section may resume.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
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