empty
 
 
25.01.2023 09:24 AM
Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 25/01/2023

Overall, the pound has lost its traction yesterday, which given the preliminary estimates of PMIs in both the UK and the United States, is not that surprising. GBP ended up posting small daily losses after the data from the UK showed that S&P Global Services PMI fell to 48 in early January when it should have risen from 49.9 points to 50.0 points. The Manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, improved modestly to 46.7 from 45.3 in the same period, which was much better than the forecasted 46.0 points. But just at the expense of the Services PMI, the UK Composite PMI fell to 47.8 in January of 2023 from 49 in December, missing market expectations of 49.6.

UK PMI Composite:

This image is no longer relevant

On the other hand, the US PMIs came out significantly better than forecasts. The services activity PMI increased from 44.7 points to 46.6 points, though the growth to 45.0 points was expected. On the manufacturing side, instead of decreasing from 46.2 points to 45.0 points, the PMI came in at 46.8 points. As a result, the PMI Composite rose from 45.0 points to 46.6 points, whereas it had been expected to rise only to 45.1 points.

US PMI Composite:

This image is no longer relevant

The only surprise is that the pound started to rise when the US data was released. But apparently, this is due to its already sharp decline, which began literally with the opening of trading. So it is nothing but a technical rebound. Of course, another factor is the fall in US Treasury yields. And it's rather significant. In other words, investors are still waiting for the Federal Reserve to show signs of easing rate hikes. In general, there is a growing confidence in the market that next week's rate hike will be the last in the current cycle, and the U.S. central bank will begin to prepare the market for a subsequent interest rate cut. This is a crucial factor that will have a significant impact on the dollar. Moreover, the macroeconomic calendar is totally empty today, so investors will have to rely on other factors. Such as expectations of the Fed's actions.

GBPUSD showed speculative activity in the market. The price fell below the 1.2300, and then rolled back.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator had already crossed the 50 line from top to bottom. This means an increase in short positions on the pound.

Moving averages on the H4 Alligator are intersected with each other which means a slowdown in the bullish cycle or sideways trading. On the daily chart, moving averages are directed upward.

This image is no longer relevant

Outlook

Keeping the price below the 1.2300 mark is necessary for a transition from a pullback stage to a full-fledged correction. Otherwise, we can't rule out going back to moving around 1.2300/1.2440.

Complex indicator analysis suggests mixed signals for the short-term due to a pullback followed by a state of being stagnant. In the intraday period, the indicators are focused on the recent breakthrough of the 1.2300 level. In the mid-term period, the indicators are reflecting the upward cycle from the autumn of 2022.

Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
GBPUSD
Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Start trade
Start trade
Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 28/03/2023
The pound's growth is solely due to the euro's growth, and so the British currency was able to return to the local highs and its further growth is somewhat...
作者: Dean Leo
03:24 2023-03-28 UTC--4
1120
Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 27/03/2023
After last week's turbulence, market participants can enjoy a little break in the form of a completely blank macroeconomic calendar, which will somewhat consolidate...
作者: Dean Leo
03:28 2023-03-27 UTC--4
2095
Breaking forecast for GBP/USD on March 24, 2023
The Bank of England stopped the pound's appreciation and created prerequisites for its decline, which may start as early as today. Preliminary estimates on the PMI indices will be the main trigger of a possible drop.
作者: Dean Leo
02:33 2023-03-24 UTC--4
2005
展示更多
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $8000 more!
    In March we raffle $8000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 28/03/2023

Completely empty macroeconomic calendar and silence from the Bank of England, but the pound fully recouped its losses and returned to the previous week's highs. And it's all about

Dean Leo 09:24 2023-03-28 UTC+2

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 27/03/2023

At first glance, preliminary estimates of PMIs in Europe turned out to be very good. At 55.6, the services Purchasing Managers' Index hit a 10-month high in March, up from

Dean Leo 09:28 2023-03-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD: bullish bias intact above 1,966

XAU/USD registered strong growth but now it has found strong resistance and it could retreat a little. It's trading at 1,981 at the time of writing. The bias remains bullish

Ralph Shedler 18:49 2023-03-24 UTC+2

Breaking forecast for GBP/USD on March 24, 2023

The Bank of England stopped the pound's appreciation and created prerequisites for its decline, which may start as early as today. Preliminary estimates on the PMI indices will

Dean Leo 07:33 2023-03-24 UTC+2

Breaking forecast for EUR/USD on March 23, 2023

The Fed's decision to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points did not surprise traders. Thus, unlike the following press conference, it had zero effect on the market

Dean Leo 07:34 2023-03-23 UTC+2

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 22/03/2023

Since last Wednesday, the pound gained almost two hundred and fifty points, afterwards it slightly retreated. It is quite natural after such a significant growth. The pound will probably edge

Dean Leo 08:29 2023-03-22 UTC+2

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 21/03/2023

So, a completely empty macroeconomic calendar became a perfect background for the euro to restore to the values where it was before the reports about the problems at Credit Suisse

Dean Leo 08:23 2023-03-21 UTC+2

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 20/03/2023

The US industrial production report turned out to be much worse than expected and the previous data was revised from 0.8% to 0.5%. And instead of slowing to 0.2%

Dean Leo 08:19 2023-03-20 UTC+2

USD/CAD confirming its breakdown

The USD/CAD pair increased in the last hours and now is trading at 1.3760. Still, the bullish momentum could be only temporary as the rate could only test and retest

Ralph Shedler 17:06 2023-03-17 UTC+2

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 17/03/2023

The European Central Bank generally managed to calm the markets. Not so much by increasing the refinancing rate by 50 basis points, but by a clear hint of further growth

Dean Leo 08:38 2023-03-17 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.