The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1.3480 suggesting a decline. However, a break of this level will initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 1.3480 with the 1st objective at 1.3420 and then at 1.3400. A breakthrough of 1.3500 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.3480 with the 1st objective at 1.3540 and then at 1.3560. A breakthrough of 1.3460 will invalidate this scenario.