Technical outlook:

The US dollar index rose through the 109.00 swing high last week before finding resistance and pulling back. The index has given in to bears dropping over 200 points, having registered a low at 106.89 on Monday. The index is seen to be trading close to 107.25 at this point in writing and is projected to target at least the 103.00 initial support on the daily chart.

The US dollar index has remained in control of bulls since January 2021 after registering lows at around 89.20. The index has produced a religious uptrend carving higher highs and higher lows through 109.00 recently. The entire rally might be complete and a meaningful correction could be underway soon towards 103.00 and 101.00 levels if not lower.

The US dollar index has further carved a lower-degree downswing between 109.00 and 106.89 in the past three trading sessions. Intraday pullback rallies can be expected but they should be well capped below the 109.00 interim resistance. Bears are looking poised to remain in control and target below 101.00, which is the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally.

Going forward:

The US dollar index has printed a multi-year high at 109.00, which has been accompanied by a bearish divergence on the daily RSI as seen here. The same is being reflected on the weekly chart too (not seen here). Furthermore, the daily chart is completing a potential Evening Star candlestick pattern and a close around 107.00-10 will confirm it. Considering all the above facts, a high probability remains for a drop towards at least 101.00 in the near term.

Trading plan:

Potential drop towards 101.00 against 109.00

Good luck!