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11.04.2014 03:42 AM
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 11, 2014

The Bank of England keeps rates low. Growth is looking healthier in the UK and inflation is still below the target, so it’s unlikely the bank will change its benchmark interest rate from the current 0.5%. The Bank of England policymakers allow the UK's recovery to gather pace. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at pound 375 billion.

Technical view

As we recommended in yesterday's article, sell on rallies and it was the limited upside. The pair is reacting the same today. The pair faces strong resistance at 1.6823. The pair is in a sell mode in the near term or for a couple of days. Overall, the pair is set for long trend upside until the US dollar breaks above the 81 levels. In Asia, the pair is trading at 1.6772. Trades below the 1.6786 add more weakness towards this pair. On the down side, the pair has support at 1.6718, a break below this will correct it up to 1.6684 and 1.6664 (50SMA). On the up side, the bull's strength will be back only above 1.6823 towards 1.69 and 1.7 levels. We still favor selling on rally for a couple of days, or fresh longs will get a good opportunity on dip.

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For positional basis, the pair is trading between 1.6718-1.6823. Breakout either side will give more room for trading towards 1.7 or 1.66 levels. A day close above the 1.6823 level (a February 17 high) will help the pair extend its leg towards 1.6910 and 1.70 levels. But in the down side, if the pair breaks and closes below 1.6718 today, the bear strength will take the pair towards 1.6 and 1.6554. The level of 1.6554 is the minor trend decider level, if holds, bulls will regain strength, if not, the bears will take the pair up to 1.6465 levels.

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