The dollar has once again attempted to move but has found itself at the mercy of the situation due to recent statements from Donald Trump on the Middle East and rumors that countries have reached a breakthrough in peace negotiations.

The dollar ignored positive PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors but reacted to news that Pakistan brokered another project agreement between the US and Iran. Even though the agreement says nothing about the nuclear program, such news, even in the absence of groundbreaking decisions, can create volatility.

Next, we await a series of reports from the Eurozone, which will undoubtedly attract the attention of investors and analysts. The focus will be on Germany's GDP change data – the locomotive of the European economy. Market participants will be looking for signs of acceleration or deceleration in growth, as this could significantly influence the region's and the euro's overall dynamics.

Alongside macroeconomic indicators, the IFO Institute's indexes will also hold special significance. These indexes, which measure business climate conditions, current situation assessments, and economic expectations, serve as sensitive barometers of sentiment in the business community. Positive dynamics in these indicators could signal an impending improvement in business activity, while a decline could herald potential difficulties.

As for the pound, today promises to be relatively calm at least in its first half. The lack of significant macroeconomic data from the UK suggests the GBP/USD pair is likely to trade within an already established sideways channel. This is a typical situation when markets are in a wait-and-see mode, and without new data or significant external catalysts, the currency demonstrates limited movement, consolidating within formed price ranges.

If the data matches economists' expectations, it's better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceed or fall short of economists' expectations, it's best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (for Breakouts):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout of 1.1635, which could lead to a rise in the euro to the area of 1.1659 and 1.1678;
• Sell on a breakout of 1.1609, which could lead to a decline in the euro to the area of 1.1585 and 1.1555;

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout of 1.3444, which could lead to a rise in the pound to the area of 1.3473 and 1.3505;
• Sell on a breakout of 1.3410, which could lead to a decline in the pound to the area of 1.3379 and 1.3344;

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout of 159.15, which could lead to a rise in the dollar to the area of 159.40 and 159.65;
• Sell on a breakout of 158.85, which could lead to a drop in the dollar to the area of 158.55 and 158.25;

Mean Reversion Strategy (for Retracements):

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1629 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1600 on a return to this level;

For GBP/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3440 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3416 on a return to this level;

For AUD/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7161 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7134 on a return to this level;

For USD/CAD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3798 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3775 on a return to this level;