Monthly forecast- weak only below 138, until it hold with strict sl 137.50

Traders eye tomorrow's series of economic data in front of the euro, today's BOJ governor Kuroda speech & ECB President Draghi speech. We expect the pair will get a clear direction this week. EUR/JPY has been in a down trend from 145.68 levels. It has broken the lower support trend line that has been set for two months. This week's low at 138.70 and previous week's low at 138.10 are strong support levels (rounded to 138.0). A break below this, it will fall to 136.75 (weekly 50 SMA) and 136.20 (parallel support). The weekly RSI favors selling on the rally until it breaks the upper descending trend line (purple color). For the medium term perspective, until the pair crosses 143.80 on the down side, gates are open for 134.45 levels. Only above 142 levels, bulls will have an upper hand, they will get complete control only above 143.80 levels.

Traders can enter short positions only below the 137.5 levels, until buying on dips is preferred for targets 139.95, 140.91 and 142 levels. Sell below 138 for 136.20, 131 and 125 levels.

Weekly key support- 138.

Weekly key resistance- 139.95.

Weekly basis-

In the daily chart, the RSI favors buying on the dips. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 138.57, 138.12 and 137.50 (daily 200EMA). A day close below the 200EMA, the short-term trend change will take the pair towards 136 and 134 levels. On the up side, the pair strong momentum above 139.41, it can fly up to 139.85, 140.25 and 140.90 levels.

Intraday-

The pair looks strong only above 139.42 and weak below 138.90 levels. On the up side, if the pair trades above 139.42, it will travel up to 139.84, 140.25 and 140.82 levels. On the down side, if the pair breaks below 138.95, it will fall to 138.70, 138.57, 138.30, 138 levels.