GBP/USD Analysis – 5-Minute Chart
The GBP/USD currency pair also remained virtually unchanged throughout Tuesday, as there were very few important events, and the market was entirely focused on the US congressional elections, the results of which are expected to become clear today. In fact, the final results may not be announced for several weeks, as some ballots are sent by mail and take a considerable amount of time to process. However, even without the mail-in ballots, it should be approximately clear by this evening who has won. In this regard, the Democrats are considered the likely winners, and the market has already demonstrated overnight how it views a potential victory for Trump's political opponents.
Regardless of the election results, the US dollar is expected to continue weakening. The market is completely overlooking the fact that the Bank of England is due to begin its monetary policy tightening cycle as early as tomorrow, while the pound remains within a sideways channel in both the medium and long term. After the lower boundaries of these channels have been tested, a move toward their upper boundaries would be a logical development. Therefore, 1.3650 remains the minimum upward target for the pound.
Important US labor market and unemployment data will also be released this week, and the optimistic expectations of many analysts regarding these indicators are not shared. The US labor market is considered to remain on a downward trajectory.
From a technical perspective, the British pound continues to develop an upward trend, as indicated by the trendline. The pound has not fallen below the Senkou Span B line, so the upward trend remains intact. The 1.3369–1.3377 level also provides support for the British currency. There are sufficient technical grounds and potential for the pound to continue rising.
On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Tuesday. Only overnight did the price reach the 1.3465–1.3480 level, so a trading signal is expected to form within the next few hours.
COT Report
COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have maintained a dominant selling position for several consecutive months. The net position remains negative despite the continuation of the long-term upward trend. Given developments in the Middle East, it is hardly surprising that demand for the US dollar remains relatively high in 2026. The war between the United States and Iran has formally been put on hold but could resume in the near future. The Fed's changed monetary policy stance is also supporting the dollar, while the upward trendline has been broken. However, this occurred under sideways market conditions, so the upward trend is not considered complete.
In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, as is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war is likely to continue in one form or another for a considerable period, while Trump's policies are aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains intact.
According to the latest COT report (dated October 27), the Non-commercial group opened 2,400 buy positions and 1,400 sell positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,000 over the week.
GBP/USD Analysis – 1-Hour Chart
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to develop a logical and technically justified upward trend. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the price swept liquidity below recent lows while remaining within its sideways channels. Therefore, further appreciation of the British currency can be expected, at least toward 1.3650, which represents the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. Fundamental and macroeconomic factors are not necessary to support further gains, as the GBP/USD pair remains within its sideways channels.
For November 4, the following important levels are identified: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, and 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3344) and Kijun-sen (1.3382) lines may also generate trading signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss order to breakeven once the price has moved 20 points in the favorable direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals.
No important events or publications are scheduled in the UK today, while the US will release the relatively important, or at least noteworthy, ADP and ISM reports. However, these reports are likely to be overshadowed by the continuously updated results of the US congressional elections. Therefore, elevated volatility may persist throughout the day.
Summary of the Analysis
Traders may consider the 1.3369–1.3382 level as a target for short positions if the price rebounds from the 1.3465–1.3480 level. If the price consolidates above the 1.3465–1.3480 level, the 1.3588 level may once again be considered a target for long positions.
Explanation of the Illustrations
Support and resistance levels are shown as thick red lines around which price movements may end. These levels are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour chart. They are considered strong lines.
Extreme levels are shown as thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They can generate trading signals.
Yellow lines represent trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position held by each category of traders.
