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16.07.2015 07:51 AM
Forecast of USD/CAD for July 16, 2015

The Bank of Canada announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The CPI inflation rate has remained around 1 per cent in recent months, reflecting declining year-over-year prices for gasoline and other consumer energy products. Core inflation is expected to remain around 2 per cent throughout the projection period as the upward pressures from exchange rate pass-through largely offset downward pressures from excess supply.

According to Fed William, strengthening US economy signals that the Fed may raise it interest rates in 2015. The possibility that the US inflation rate rises to 2% by the end of 2016 is 50%. Compared to the last week, the situation in Greece is "a little less worrying."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Fed rate hike will make more money into the bond market, rather than less. The Fed is expected to begin normalizing interest rate path".

Today, traders eye US unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing. The Federal chairwoman Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee.

Technical view: The pair managed to breach the previous resistance of 1.2835, hit a new high of 1.2958. The parallel resistance is seen at 1.2983 and 1.3063. In all time frames, the pair remains in the bullish territory, but oscillators indicating highly overbought levels with negative mild divergences.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2945, 1.2960, and 1.2985. The upside journey is limited from here. It is likely to extend towards 1.2980, 1.3020, and 1.3050 in the extreme case . Use every rise to sell and hold for the next couple of days. Intraday support is found at 1.2900 and 1.2800.

Trade: Sell below 1.2900

Buying above 1.2960 contains risk.

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