EURUSD is trading above 1.19 after making an important low at 1.17. The 1.17 level was our pull back target and important Fibonacci support. There we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire upward move from 1.0635 to 1.2350.

Blue line- expected direction

Red rectangle- target

This current bounce we do not believe is part of the decline from 1.2350 to 1.17. This is an entire different move and we expect to see this upward bounce to continue higher towards the red rectangle target area around 1.21. EURUSD remains in an upward short-term trend as long as price is above 1.1875. Short-term indicators show a weakening upward momentum. Bulls better wait for a pull back before going long EURUSD again.

The RSI in the 4 hour chart is showing bearish divergence signs. This is not a reversal signal but only a warning that a short-term pull back could be seen over the next couple of days. Over the next couple of weeks we expect price to move towards 1.21 but in the short-term a pull back is very probable.