EUR/USD

Yesterday, the US showed positive data on durable-goods orders in March, the index increased by 2.7% against expectations of 0.7% and a -1.1% drop in February (revised from -1.6%). The stock market reacted poorly to the data, as it felt mixed feelings from the disappointing reports of companies, but the yield of government bonds rose slightly, the dollar index added 0.09%. The weakness of the index was influenced by the yen, which strengthened after the Bank of Japan announced that it will maintain the current rates for at least another year. The euro fell by 20 points, consolidating below the target level of 1.1155. Today there are data on US GDP for the 1st quarter in the 2nd estimate, the forecast assumes that the figure will remain at 2.2%. The final consumer confidence rating from the University of Michigan in April is expected to rise to 97.1 from 96.9.

In the technical aspect, we see a weak convergence of prices with the Marlin oscillator on a four-hour scale chart. Formally, this may indicate a small price correction, but there is a nuance – with wedge-shaped formations, the prices of convergence/divergence are often re-formed into a further trend decline of the indicator, which is interpreted as the discharge of the oscillator before further lowering of the signal line.

So, we stick to the main scenario – the euro's decline to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.1075. Consolidation below the level can continue the trend to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985.