GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound almost reached the initial growth target of 1.2540 at the point of convergence of the price channel line with the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Such an accelerated pound growth, set by a strong movement on Friday, could turn into a quick reversal after the Federal Reserve meeting. This is one of the options for the development of today's and tomorrow's events - an increase with the development of 1.2540, or slightly higher, followed by a downward price movement. The reasons may lie on a fundamental plane: inflation data for England in August, published today, are expected to worsen (the core CPI is 1.8% y/y versus 1.9% y/y earlier), and US data on the laying of new homes for August is expected to grow from 1.19 million y/y to 1.25 million y/y. This discrepancy can be taken into account in prices after the Fed released its monetary policy, which, with a high degree of probability, may have a hawkish tone, up to the announcement of a delay in the period of the rate reduction cycle.

If, however, the tonality of the accompanying statement and the comments of Jerome Powell are not very hawkish, after consolidating the price above 1.2540, it is possible to continue growth to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2668. The nearest targets when turning: 1.2381, 1.2230.

On the four-hour chart, the price is above the balance line and the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, but its growth is sluggish, which is also alarming.