Good day, dear traders!
Yesterday's review of the GBP/USD currency pair highlighted the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. However, the speech of the chief monetary official of the English Central Bank went unnoticed by market participants. The main attention of investors was drawn to the statement of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on increasing public investment twice. This measure should be intended for infrastructure spending to offset the possible consequences of the second wave of COVID-19.
Also in question is the ability of the UK to conclude a trade agreement with the European Union and close the subject of Brexit in the designated time frame, before the end of this year. All this put pressure on the British currency, which fell against the US dollar yesterday.
Today, at 07:00 (London time), the final data on GDP for the first quarter were received from the UK, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts of economists. For more information about the actual figures, see the economic calendar, where you can also find out about today's statistics from the United States. I will highlight the most important moment, which will be the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States Jerome Powell, scheduled for 17:30 London time.
Daily
As expected yesterday, the most relevant trading idea for this currency pair is its sales after corrective pullbacks up. At the trading on June 29, the market provided this opportunity, however, the pair fell short of the indicated prices in the area of 1.2435-1.2475. After reaching 1.2388, the bulls on the pound exhausted their strength, and the pair turned to decline. As a result, Monday's trading ended with the formation of a bearish candle, with the closing price at 1.2294. It is worth noting that this is below the important level of 1.2300 and Monday's trading ended within the cloud of the Ichimoku indicator.
At the moment, the pound/dollar pair continues its downward dynamics and is already trading confidently within the daily cloud. If the decline continues, the pound/dollar will retest support at 1.2250, where the minimum values of yesterday's trading were shown. A break of this mark will send the pair to 1.2200 and 1.2160, where the minimum values were shown on May 22 and 25 of this year.
For the pound bulls to go on the offensive, it is necessary to update yesterday's lows at 1.2388, then break through strong resistance at 1.2408, where the 50 simple moving average and the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator converged. Judging by the daily chart, the most realistic scenario looks like a downward trend, but much will depend on the bears' ability to push through the level of 1.2250.
H1
On the hourly chart, the pair is trading under the moving averages used: 50 MA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA. Please note that each of these moving averages can provide strong resistance and turn the quote in the south direction. Naturally, this will only be relevant if the pair can rise to 1.2330, 1.2360, and the area of yesterday's highs of 1.2388. If the reversal patterns of Japanese candles appear near the indicated prices on this or four-hour timeframes, a signal will appear to open sales. Another option for opening short positions on the pound will be a true breakout of the support of 1.2250 and a pullback to this level.
Purchases in the current situation seem to be the most risky, so until there are clear signals to open long positions, it is better not to open them. Those who want to buy the pound, I recommend waiting for the corresponding candle signals in the price zone of 1.2207-1.2167, and then buy with small goals, in the area of 1.2245.
Good luck!
