Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for GBP/USD

The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders from 07.21.20) showed uncertainty and contemplation. Open interest (180337) declined compared to the previous report (-997). There was no solidarity in the actions of the major players, although there were some regularities. Investments in the pound were most actively reduced by the Commercial (long -6139 - short -3665) and Dealer Intermediary (long -10136 - short -24) groups. As a result, as of July 21, the net position on the pound, despite its overall reduction, amounted to 5354, with the prevalence of long positions by three percent (long 87.4% against short 84.4%).

The main conclusion

Despite the general uncertainty and the persistence of expectations for better times, the final advantage now has the positions of the players for increasing, which determines their advantage at the current stage. If the current situation persists, bulls will skillfully use the circumstances to further strengthen their positions.

Technical picture

Technically, as noted in previous reviews, the promoters came to the rescue with important supports. After successfully maintaining their position above the supports, the bulls continued their upward movement. To date, the pair has met the resistance of the weekly cloud (1.2735-1.2970). Entering the bullish zone relative to the cloud and consolidating higher will contribute to the emergence of new prospects and further strengthening of bullish sentiment. The formation of the rebound can complete the period of general thought and the use by the bulls, albeit insignificant, but still an advantage, transferring the initiative into the hands of the players for a decline.

With the beginning of the new trading week, the upside traders continued to rise and have already tested the second resistance of the classic pivot levels (1.2855) by now. The next intraday resistance is waiting for the pair at 1.2909 (R3). The key supports for the lower halves, which can change the current balance of power, are located today at 1.2769 (central pivot level) and 1.2722 (weekly long-term trend).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)