To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1877 and recommended opening long positions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened: it is clear that the bears are making an unsuccessful attempt to break below the support of 1.1877, after which a false breakout of this level is formed. Even on a repeated test of this range, no people were willing to sell the euro, which led to the closing of short positions and the strengthening of the pair in the first half of the day. At the time of writing, the target level of 1.1933 was reached, which allowed us to take about 50 points of profit from the market.

Given the lack of important fundamental statistics, the market has taken the side of euro buyers. They coped with the initial task just fine, now you need to think about how to proceed further in the resistance area of 1.1933. The bulls' goal for the second half of the day will be to regain control of this level. Only a test of this area from top to bottom forms a convenient entry point into long positions, counting on the growth of EUR/USD in the area of the maximum of 1.1987, where I recommend fixing the profits. The next major resistance is seen in the area of 1.2047, however, it will not be so easy to get to it, especially against the background of the problems of the European economy, which can not get rid of the coronavirus infection, which partially paralyzes its work. In the case of a decline in EUR/USD in the second half of the day again to the level of 1.1877, it is best to act according to the morning scenario – to open long positions only if a false breakout is formed. In the absence of activity on the part of the bulls at this level, I recommend postponing long positions for a rebound immediately from the larger minimum of 1.1835, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. A test of this level will completely cancel out all the bulls' plans for the recovery of the euro in the short term.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The bears failed to cope with the morning task and failed to break below the support of 1.1877, releasing the market to the resistance area of 1.1933. The primary task of sellers will be to protect this level, and only the formation of a false breakout on it will form an entry point into short positions in the expectation of a repeated return to the area of the lower border of the side channel 1.1877. Given that important fundamental statistics are not expected to be released today and in the second half of the day, pressure on the euro will remain only if non-standard statements are made by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, whose speeches are scheduled during the US session. A break and consolidation below 1.1877 will quickly push EUR/USD to a minimum of 1.1835, where I recommend taking the profits. If the sellers of the euro do not show much activity and allow the bulls to regain control of the resistance of 1.1933, it is best to postpone short positions until the resistance test of 1.1987, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately to rebound with the aim of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next major area for sales is seen around 1.2047.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 9 clearly shows how there is a sharp reduction in long positions and a very large increase in short ones, which indicates a continued shift of the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the chart of the fall of the euro, which we have been watching since the end of February this year. The sharp rise in bond yields of many developed countries continues, which plays in favor of the US dollar, as investors expect that the United States will be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the US dollar more attractive.

The recent meeting of the European Central Bank did not change the market, as the decisions taken were not critical and did not affect the mood of investors. It is best not to rush into buying euros but to wait for lower prices. Another factor of medium-term pressure on the euro is the repeated increase in the incidence of coronavirus. The slow vaccination program is pushing the lifting of quarantine measures to a later date. Only with the lifting of restrictions and the restoration of the service sector can we expect an improvement in the economic prospects of the eurozone, which will return the medium-term trend to the strengthening of the EUR/USD. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions declined to 207,588 from 222,655, while short non-profit positions rose from 96,667 to 105,624. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the fourth week in a row to 101,964 from 125,988. The weekly closing price was 1.1812 against 1.2048 a week earlier.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to seize the initiative.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair grows in the second half of the day, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1939 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.