EUR/USD

Yesterday, the price of the lower shadow of the daily candle almost reached the upper border of the target range of 1.1688-1.1700. The upper limit can still be taken, the October 19, 2021 low at 1.1703, then the range will correspond to the extremes of October 15-19, and in this case it will be reached with an accuracy of point (1.1704).

Today's US report on the ISM manufacturing PMI for March is expected to grow from 60.8 to 61.3, weekly applications for unemployment benefits are expected to decline from 684,000 to 680,000, and tomorrow the unemployment data will be released, in which new jobs in the non-agricultural sector are expected to reach 647,000(!) against 379,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decrease from 6.2% to 6.0%.

All these circumstances make us think that the development of the Marlin oscillator in its own triangle will follow the option with the lower output (dashed line on the chart), and the current double convergence will be abolished. The euro will aim for 1.1560, the area of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

The convergence flared up and went out on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after entering the growth area, found itself in negative territory again. The price may stay in the range of 1.1700/4-1.1745 for some time, but tonight or tomorrow it will go down, especially since the market will be thin due to the Catholic Easter holidays.