30.01.2023 04:11 PM
U.S. Dollar Index outlook for January 30, 2023

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A number of important publications and events of an economic nature are scheduled for this week. The focus of traders will be on the meetings of three major world central banks (USA, UK, Eurozone) at once, as well as the publication on Friday of key monthly data from the U.S. labor market.

Market participants expect the ECB and the Bank of England to raise the interest rate immediately by 0.50% and the Fed by only 0.25%. This fact is a constraining factor for dollar buyers.

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Moreover, investors expect the Fed to pause in its policy tightening cycle and possibly even some pullback and easing in the second half of this year.

In general, the downward dynamics of the dollar and its index remain, which makes short positions on DXY (CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal) preferable. After the breakdown of the 101.00 support level and in case of further decline, the targets will be the key support levels 100.00, 98.60.

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And the first signal for the implementation of this scenario may be a breakdown of the local support level 101.50.

Alternatively, DXY may return to the bull market zone above the 104.90 resistance level (200 EMA on the daily chart) and 105.45. The first signal of this scenario will be a breakdown of resistance levels 102.05 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) and 102.16. The breakdown of the 105.45 resistance level (144 EMA on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario of the DXY growth resumption.

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Support levels: 101.50, 101.00, 100.00, 98.75, 93.00

Resistance levels: 102.05, 102.16, 103.00, 103.39, 104.00, 104.15, 104.90, 105.45, 106.00, 107.80, 109.25

Trading scenarios

Dollar Index CFD #USDX: Sell Stop 101.40. Stop Loss 102.20. Take-Profit 101.00, 100.00, 99.00, 98.75, 93.00

Buy Stop 102.20. Stop-Loss 101.40. Take-Profit 103.00, 103.39, 104.00, 104.15, 104.90, 105.45, 106.00, 107.80, 109.25

Jurij Tolin,
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