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13.11.2018 08:39 AM
Global macro overview for 13/11/2018

Monday brought the continuation of Friday's trends: a strong dollar, oil and gold prices, and declines in stock markets. Only that everything was even stronger.

It started with a pair of EUR/USD, which in the early morning broke this year's lows. The EUR / USD exchange rate ended the day with a drop by 1% and at the lowest level since June 2017. The strong dollar led to a drop in USD (gold and oil) prices (-0.7%) and crude oil (-1.3% in the case of WTI).

But the next share market - and it's quite surprising - hit the stock market. Goldman Sachs' shares went down by 7.5% after the Malaysian government announced its intention to demand a New York bank return of commission for arranging money withdrawals from the 1MDB government fund. The second blow fell on the part of electronics manufacturers. Lumentum Holdings shares were overestimated by as much as 33% after the company lowered this year's financial forecast. Lumentum Holdings is one of the important sub-suppliers of Apple, which caused concerns about the sale of iPhones. Apple's advantages were down 5%, pulling down not only the entire hi-tech sector but also stock indices.

Eventually, Nasdaq ended the Monday's session with a 2.78% loss. Dow Jones went down by more than 600 points or 2.32%. The SP500 index fell by 1.97%. At the same time, you have to consider, that the drops were made on low volume. On this Monday Americans celebrated Veteran's Day (this is happening in the US, when November 11 falls on Sunday), and therefore the market for US government bonds was closed. So basically the most important financial market in the world.

The continuation of the drama was experienced by General Electric shareholders. GE's share price fell by nearly 7%, to the lowest level since March 2009 after the president of the industrial giant admitted that his company is over-indebted and that some assets will have to be sold.

Let's now take a look at the SPX technical picture at the H4 time frame after the Monday decreases. The market has closed below the technical support at the level of 273.30 and it looks like the bears are going to close the gap between the levels of 268.15 - 269.52. If this level is violated, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 262.25, which is quite a distance. The momentum remains negative and weak, the same situation is at the stochastic indicator.

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