24.11.2022 02:48 PM
GBP/USD analysis for November 24. The British pound complicates the upward section of the trend.

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The wave marking for the pound/dollar instrument currently appears quite confusing, but it still needs to be clarified. We have a completed downward trend section consisting of five waves (a-b-c-d-e). We also have a five-wave upward trend section, which has taken the form a-b-c-d-e and can be completed. As a result, the instrument's quotes may continue to rise for a while. Still, the European currency has already begun (presumably) constructing a new downward section, and the British should do the same. Since both central banks recently increased interest rates, the news backdrop has been open to interpretation. The previous Friday, we witnessed the dollar decline against a news backdrop, which may have contributed to its potential future growth. Then came the inflation report, which decreased demand for the dollar even though the opposite outcome might have occurred. Wave e's internal wave structure was complicated by the rise in quotes yesterday, but so far, only this wave has changed, not the entire trend section. This wave might have a longer form.

In the UK, business activity remained unchanged.

On November 24, the pound/dollar exchange rate increased by 75 basis points; yesterday, it increased by 170. Business activity indices could not have produced such a significant increase. However, you must first address them to ensure no open questions. Using the British pound as an example, it is clear that the market paid no attention to business activity indices. The demand for the euro and the pound started to increase on the morning of the previous day, but in the European Union, two indices continued to rise; in the UK, two indices remained unchanged, and one increased by 0.1 points. Of course, an increase in the British by even 20 points could not be caused by a change of 0.1 while maintaining positions below the critical mark of 50.0. And we experienced 170 growth.

American statistics are the same in this regard. The manufacturing sector's business activity index fell to 47.6 points, the services sector to 46.1 points, and the composite index to 46.3 points. Compared to a month prior, all three indices were weaker in November. Please take note that these indices were released close to dusk. The value of the pound sterling has increased by 140 points as of the time of their release. They are also unlikely to have contributed to a decline in interest in the US dollar. I can only draw attention to the shift in volume for long-term use orders, among other reports from the USA. Despite the market expecting growth of 0.3-0.4%, they expanded by 1%. Although the report was stronger than anticipated, this did not help the US dollar, which kept losing ground. As a result, I connect yesterday's events to bigger happenings or the market's basic desire to buy the pound and sell the dollar. The market has recently grown accustomed to slowing the rate at which interest rates are raised in the United States, which may cause the dollar's decline. Though the market believes otherwise, it is sufficient to play this factor.

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Conclusions in general

The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. I cannot suggest purchasing the instrument immediately because the wave marking already permits the development of a downward trend section. Sales are now more accurate with targets around the 1.1111 level, or 200.0% Fibonacci. The wave e, however, can evolve into an even longer shape.

The euro/dollar instrument and the picture look very similar at the larger wave scale, which is good because both instruments should move similarly. The upward correction portion of the trend is currently almost finished. If this is the case, a new downward trend will soon develop.

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