To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:
In my morning forecast, I recommended opening short positions when a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of 1.3376, which happened. And if yesterday the pound caused a lot of trouble, today, the first sale from 1.3376 made it possible to compensate for all losses, as the downward movement was more than 40 points. Let's look at a 5-minute chart. On it, I marked the point where a false breakout was formed after an unsuccessful attempt by the bulls to resume the growth of the pound. A return under 1.3376 quickly pushed the pair to the morning support of 1.3325, for which the main fight will unfold in the second half of the day.
As a result of all the movements, the technical picture remained completely unchanged. The entire focus in the second half of the day will be shifted to a fairly large number of fundamental statistics on the American economy. Today, important US GDP reports and Federal Reserve minutes are published, which may lead to a slight strengthening of the dollar. If the data turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, and we are also interested in the income and expenses of Americans, then demand for the pound will quickly increase. Only if a false breakout is formed in the support area of 1.3325, by analogy, as it was yesterday, buyers will be able to form a signal to open long positions in the expectation of resuming the bull market. In this case, the goal will be to re-update the maximum of 1.3376, which now determines the further movement of the pair. Fixing above 1.3376 will open up a real prospect for GBP/USD to update the highs of 1.3453 and 1.3523, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, such a large increase will occur only if there is good news on Brexit, or if the fundamentals of the US economy are very weak. If the bulls do not show any activity in the area of 1.3325, then I recommend returning to buying the pound only for a rebound from the minimum of 1.3267, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need to:
Breaking the level of 1.3325 is the primary task of the bears for the second half of the day. Only fixing below this area with its test from the bottom up, similar to yesterday's entry point into short positions, will return new large sellers to the market, which will quickly push GBP/USD to the area of the minimum of 1.3267, where I recommend fixing the profits. It will be possible to talk about the resumption of the bear market only after the breakdown of 1.3267, which will lead to the demolition of several stop orders from buyers and a rapid movement of the pair down to the area of 1.3194. If in the second half of the day the bulls again manage to defend the area of 1.3325, then it is better not to rush with sales. Only another return with the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3376 will be a signal to open short positions. If there is no noticeable activity of sellers, it is best to abandon short positions until the new high is updated in the area of 1.3453, where you can sell the pound immediately on the rebound with the expectation of a correction of 20-30 points within the day.
Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for November 17, there was a reduction in long positions and a sharp influx of short positions. Long non-commercial positions declined from 27,872 to 27,454. At the same time, short non-commercial positions rose from 45,567 to 47,200. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was -19,746, against -17,695 weeks earlier, which indicates that the sellers of the British pound retain control and their preponderance in the current situation. Lack of clarity on the trade agreement, together with the lockdown of the British economy in November this year, clearly does not add optimism and confidence to the buyers of the pound.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is below 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a likely resumption of the downward correction for the pound.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
A break of the lower limit of the indicator around 1.3320 will lead to a new wave of falling of the pound. A break of the upper limit in the area of 1.3376 will form a new upward trend.
Description of indicators
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