USD/JPY

The recent correlation of the USD/JPY pair with the stock market turned out to be its first unfortunate surprise. Due to the mixed data on the US economy, investors left the market ahead of today's holiday and as a result the S&P 500 showed -0.16%, Dow Jones -0.58%, and the Nasdaq 0.48%. The yen has strengthened by one symbolic point.

The decline is intensifying this morning. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator returns to the negative trend zone, although it tries to resist. Nevertheless, the 104.05 level looks strong enough to hold the price until tomorrow night, when US investors return to the market and re-evaluate yesterday's US statistics, as they are generally favorable. There is only one risk - hard Brexit. The only question is when and how will the European political players confront investors with this fact.

Since the optimism on stock markets that we expected yesterday did not materialize, even with the subsequent growth of stock markets, the yen will not have time to reach the 105.88 target - a Brexit without a deal will pull down the price. Of course, the deal can take place, but we consider the UK's exit from the EU without a deal as the main option.

The four-hour chart shows that the price has overcome the support of the MACD line with a clear intention to reach the lower level of 104.05. There may be an upward reversal from it with another attempt to rise to 104.77.